The UK budget watchdog estimates that 6 months of lockdown will lead to national debt increase of about 25% GDP [1] - an unthinkably huge number in a world wher

The UK budget watchdog estimates that 6 months of lockdown will lead to national debt increase of about 25% GDP [1] - an unthinkably huge number in a world where 5% GDP debt increase is a huge amount, in normal times. UK's current debt-to-GDP ratio is something like 80%. Assuming an optimistic "vaccine" scenario of 1 year of lockdown, universal vaccine, then immediate bounce-back, and extrapolating the debt figures, that's 50% GDP new debt; and in reality, I expect that the longer the lockdown, the more expensive it is. I can well imagine the casualties of such a scenario to be worse than the pessimistic Coronavirus numbers. Public health funding collapsing, God knows what about schools, social spending etc., and yes, perhaps even societal collapse. I'd love to be proved wrong, but the UK government at least doesn't see it as necessary to even share its thinking of the financial consequences of lockdown, or even acknowledge that there is a trade-off. [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52393472 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52393472