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> or they need to remain at current levels indefinitely until an effective vaccine or other treatment is available It isn't quite so bad. Lockdowns are a conti
by pedrocr 7y ago
> or they need to remain at current levels indefinitely until an effective vaccine or other treatment is available
It isn't quite so bad. Lockdowns are a continuum of measures, and you can modulate them over time. We're having to do such strict lockdowns because we were so slow in responding. Once the R is below 1 you can release measures to keep it at that threshold and modulate it over time to match your health care capacity. Merkel seems particularly well informed about this, having even explained what the curve of healthcare capacity versus R looks like for Germany.
This was a good discussion on this at the beginning of the lockdowns:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th...
- taneq 7y agoOh definitely, once the number of infectious carriers is properly under control, lockdowns can be relaxed. I just meant we can't "go back to normal" until the virus is all but eradicated and no new unexplained cases are seen for at least a couple of weeks.
- pedrocr 7y agoIf you define "back to normal" as absolutely no restrictions sure. But there's a world of difference between being locked at home and having simple restrictions like no events with more than 50 people, and lower density seating at restaurants. The plan is to find a reasonable balance that's <10% of a full lockdown in terms of restriction and ride that while measuring evolution to tweak the measures. A simple control loop.