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> This virus has a hospitalisation rate of somewhere between 10% and 20% and an ICU rate of 4-10% Part of the reason there is even a debate is because we don'

> This virus has a hospitalisation rate of somewhere between 10% and 20% and an ICU rate of 4-10% Part of the reason there is even a debate is because we don't know this for sure.

taneq 6y ago
I've seen a lot of discussion about a "submerged iceberg" population of asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic infections that haven't been picked up by testing, but IMO this doesn't pass the sniff test when considering populations like Australia / NZ / South Korea. Any such population should cause a steady stream of serious cases popping up that can't be traced back to known sources, along with random community testing seeing an unexpectedly high positive rate. We're seeing no such thing. The few studies where a large population was tested and shown to be widely infected but largely asymptomatic seem to fall into one of two camps: They used immunological tests (which are now under serious suspicion don't seem reliable) or they tested a newly infected population after the first cases were found (before the majority of infections had time to manifest symptoms.) They've also been reported misleadingly (eg. the aircraft carrier case where it was reported "80% of the crew were infected but asymptomatic" when actually 80% of the crew who tested positive were asymptomatic.)
- argonaut 6y ago
  I'm also not asserting we know for sure that there is a 20-50x (or something along those lines) undercount in cases. Just that there is a huge amount of uncertainty with IFR and hospitalization rates, and none of your points really rule out that uncertainty.
  - taneq 6y ago
    Also true, and there's a chance I'm wrong and most people have already had a mild version and everything will be fine. There's enough evidence suggesting that the rates of severe complications and death are far higher than we're comfortable with, though, that I, for one, would prefer to err on the side of caution rather than run with "well, it might not kill 10% or more of the population."

> This virus has a hospitalisation rate of somewhere between 10% and 20% and an ICU rate of 4-10% Part of the reason there is even a debate is because we don't know this for sure.

taneq 6y ago

I've seen a lot of discussion about a "submerged iceberg" population of asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic infections that haven't been picked up by testing, but IMO this doesn't pass the sniff test when considering populations like Australia / NZ / South Korea. Any such population should cause a steady stream of serious cases popping up that can't be traced back to known sources, along with random community testing seeing an unexpectedly high positive rate. We're seeing no such thing. The few studies where a large population was tested and shown to be widely infected but largely asymptomatic seem to fall into one of two camps: They used immunological tests (which are now under serious suspicion don't seem reliable) or they tested a newly infected population after the first cases were found (before the majority of infections had time to manifest symptoms.) They've also been reported misleadingly (eg. the aircraft carrier case where it was reported "80% of the crew were infected but asymptomatic" when actually 80% of the crew who tested positive were asymptomatic.)

argonaut 6y ago
I'm also not asserting we know for sure that there is a 20-50x (or something along those lines) undercount in cases. Just that there is a huge amount of uncertainty with IFR and hospitalization rates, and none of your points really rule out that uncertainty.
- taneq 6y ago
  Also true, and there's a chance I'm wrong and most people have already had a mild version and everything will be fine. There's enough evidence suggesting that the rates of severe complications and death are far higher than we're comfortable with, though, that I, for one, would prefer to err on the side of caution rather than run with "well, it might not kill 10% or more of the population."