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Cause they wouldn't open everything up at once and people have shifted their behavior for the foreseeable future. I imagine a series of flattened curves one aft

Cause they wouldn't open everything up at once and people have shifted their behavior for the foreseeable future. I imagine a series of flattened curves one after another through the end of the year will be what happens as they open up pieces of the economy, presumably with better testing and tracing to control outbreaks (still to be seen). Bay area new case count is pretty much flat at this point, and I don't see why it would be that much lower in June, the thing is bubbling under the surface and won't go away until a vaccine.

lazyasciiart 7y ago
I'm not sure people's behavior will stay changed, but that aside - that presumed "better testing and tracing" is exactly what we are waiting for before opening up. It doesn't exist yet. Reducing restrictions while we still have up to a two week lag on tracking infections means that we won't know if it's going OK.
- fullshark 7y ago
  Things will always be better in terms of testing / tracing / treatment options in a month, in June if we just wait until July things would be in a better place. Ultimately this is going to be about buying time for as long as is politically and economically possible. If more and more states open up and their situation doesn't look like a disaster because they are not as dense as NYC with almost 4 million people taking subways every day, then it's going to be harder and harder for the bay area politicians to claim we need to stay shut down.
  - lazyasciiart 7y ago
    You're arguing as though "better testing/tracing" is an amorphous goal that keeps moving, when people are actually talking about quite specific and quantifiable goals. For instance, in WA: "The recovery plan begins with widely available testing for individuals who may have contracted COVID-19, tracing for those who have come into close contact with COVID-19 positive individuals, and isolation or quarantine for individuals who could transmit the virus..... For the contact-tracing plan to work, the state needs to be processing between 20,000 and 30,000 tests a day." https://medium.com/@WAStateGov/inslee-announces-washingtons-covid-19-recovery-plan-c04f346340f1 https://medium.com/@WAStateGov/inslee-announces-washingtons-...
    - fullshark 7y ago
      Fair enough, I wasn't aware the exact number of tests per day was quantified. Let's see if they stick to that goal and achieve it, or revise requirements next month if they learn the R0 isn't as large as thought in certain regions or we have beneficial climate effects, etc.

lazyasciiart 7y ago

I'm not sure people's behavior will stay changed, but that aside - that presumed "better testing and tracing" is exactly what we are waiting for before opening up. It doesn't exist yet. Reducing restrictions while we still have up to a two week lag on tracking infections means that we won't know if it's going OK.

fullshark 7y ago
Things will always be better in terms of testing / tracing / treatment options in a month, in June if we just wait until July things would be in a better place. Ultimately this is going to be about buying time for as long as is politically and economically possible. If more and more states open up and their situation doesn't look like a disaster because they are not as dense as NYC with almost 4 million people taking subways every day, then it's going to be harder and harder for the bay area politicians to claim we need to stay shut down.
- lazyasciiart 7y ago
  You're arguing as though "better testing/tracing" is an amorphous goal that keeps moving, when people are actually talking about quite specific and quantifiable goals. For instance, in WA: "The recovery plan begins with widely available testing for individuals who may have contracted COVID-19, tracing for those who have come into close contact with COVID-19 positive individuals, and isolation or quarantine for individuals who could transmit the virus..... For the contact-tracing plan to work, the state needs to be processing between 20,000 and 30,000 tests a day." https://medium.com/@WAStateGov/inslee-announces-washingtons-covid-19-recovery-plan-c04f346340f1 https://medium.com/@WAStateGov/inslee-announces-washingtons-...
  - fullshark 7y ago
    Fair enough, I wasn't aware the exact number of tests per day was quantified. Let's see if they stick to that goal and achieve it, or revise requirements next month if they learn the R0 isn't as large as thought in certain regions or we have beneficial climate effects, etc.