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The expected lifetime value of a 60 year old is around 5 million. So one million sixty years dying is a cost to the economy is about 5 * 10^12, or five trillion

The expected lifetime value of a 60 year old is around 5 million. So one million sixty years dying is a cost to the economy is about 5 * 10^12, or five trillion dollars. The US GDP is around 22 trillion a year. Therefore each million >=60 year olds saved is worth completely shutting down the US economy for around three months.

afiori 7y ago
I am always quite confused about these comparisons, as value is not money and it is unclear to me what is even bring talked about
sershe 7y ago
And where are those numbers coming from? 1) Taking this https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm and combining with SS Life Expectancy tables, the average years lost per death is ~12; that corresponds to the age of 72-73, not 60. 2) Even the most alarmist reports barely predicted million deaths in the worst case scenario. 3) How is lifetime value of 60 year old 5 million? Based on the same SS tables, that's for 21.5 years, so ~230k per year. Where is this number coming from? 3a) Using some objective standard like annual income, it would obviously be far lower. 3b) You can even use a personal take - would you rather have $5 million (translation: very safe ~$150-200k/year for life including childhood, so you never have to work while living an upper middle class lifestyle), and have a risk of death at 60 with a COVID probability for 60-year-old (~4% CFR or so, so lower IFR and even lower combined with non-100% infection rate), or have $0, live with a median job and income, and not have that risk? What about throwing out the "60-year-old" and taking the real average case, 72-73yo (with its increased CFR/IFR)? I'm pretty sure I'd roll that dice for as little as a $200-300k head start. 4) Moreover, disability adjusted life years and other similar metrics often (quite justifiably) weight later years of life lower than the earlier ones. Again, to make this more personal or less numeric, would you rather be paralyzed from neck down in your 30ies (and then remiss) or die at 80 instead of 85? I'd take dying earlier.
- sershe 7y ago
  Update: I double counted the probability in 3b, it should be guaranteed death if we are talking full amount of money. I'd still definitely take dying at 73 while starting with even ~$500-700k over average-job-income-expectancy life (a free house and a college degree, basically).

afiori 7y ago

I am always quite confused about these comparisons, as value is not money and it is unclear to me what is even bring talked about

sershe 7y ago

And where are those numbers coming from? 1) Taking this https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm and combining with SS Life Expectancy tables, the average years lost per death is ~12; that corresponds to the age of 72-73, not 60. 2) Even the most alarmist reports barely predicted million deaths in the worst case scenario. 3) How is lifetime value of 60 year old 5 million? Based on the same SS tables, that's for 21.5 years, so ~230k per year. Where is this number coming from? 3a) Using some objective standard like annual income, it would obviously be far lower. 3b) You can even use a personal take - would you rather have $5 million (translation: very safe ~$150-200k/year for life including childhood, so you never have to work while living an upper middle class lifestyle), and have a risk of death at 60 with a COVID probability for 60-year-old (~4% CFR or so, so lower IFR and even lower combined with non-100% infection rate), or have $0, live with a median job and income, and not have that risk? What about throwing out the "60-year-old" and taking the real average case, 72-73yo (with its increased CFR/IFR)? I'm pretty sure I'd roll that dice for as little as a $200-300k head start. 4) Moreover, disability adjusted life years and other similar metrics often (quite justifiably) weight later years of life lower than the earlier ones. Again, to make this more personal or less numeric, would you rather be paralyzed from neck down in your 30ies (and then remiss) or die at 80 instead of 85? I'd take dying earlier.

sershe 7y ago
Update: I double counted the probability in 3b, it should be guaranteed death if we are talking full amount of money. I'd still definitely take dying at 73 while starting with even ~$500-700k over average-job-income-expectancy life (a free house and a college degree, basically).