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> When you neuter an economy, as we have done in the US, you destroy real wealth. There is no way to counteract that by injecting money. Yes, part of the econo

> When you neuter an economy, as we have done in the US, you destroy real wealth. There is no way to counteract that by injecting money. Yes, part of the economic damage caused by a lockdown is production lost in businesses that cannot be operated safely at the time. That production cannot be restored with money. But a big part of the damage is caused by knock-on effects of businesses and individuals reducing consumption as a result of the primary economic shock, and that part absolutely can be mitigated. > How large of a spike in suicides, opioid overdoses, and psychosis are we going to see? Maybe less of one than one would intuitively think. Ultimately, mortality went down during the great depression: https://jech.bmj.com/content/66/5/410.abstract?sid=5c77edc9-6cfa-4154-be20-8272b1ca03b4 https://jech.bmj.com/content/66/5/410.abstract?sid=5c77edc9-... > And the biggest joke of all is that eradication is impossible and therefore we didn’t prevent any mortality, we just postponed it That very much remains to be seen. I see it as a virtual certainty that in a year, we'll have a much better understanding of the efficacy of various currently existing treatment options. I see it as quite likely that we'll have additional treatment options. And I see it as entirely possible that we'll have a vaccine within the next few years. And even if not a single death from covid-19 itself in the primary at-risk group is preventable, overwhelming the health care system causes preventable deaths from other causes, as well as preventable deaths and burnouts among exhausted health care professionals. > In any case I encourage you to check out [See URL above] You will note that your own source estimates a large benefit of maintaining a lockdown until June 1, and considers maintaining the lockdown until July 1 essentially a wash. That's hardly a ringing endorsement of your views.

__blockcipher__ 7y ago
> You will note that your own source estimates a large benefit of maintaining a lockdown until June 1, and considers maintaining the lockdown until July 1 essentially a wash. That's hardly a ringing endorsement of your views. I provided the source to show that models are being formed. My own views materially differ from the authors', particularly on that point. > overwhelming the health care system causes preventable deaths from other causes, as well as preventable deaths and burnouts among exhausted health care professionals. Well, but what we've actually done is exactly that, in the opposite direction. Rather than our healthcare system being crushed by hordes of covid patients, across the US in places that aren't being ravaged (so, everywhere that isn't new york/new jersey/etc), we are dramatically scaling _down_ our healthcare capacity due to having furloughed tens of thousands of medical workers for the exact reason that people are postponing elective surgeries and other preventative measures that we know reduce mortality. In other words, you're right about preventable deaths from other causes, but we actually are causing those right now by being locked down.

__blockcipher__ 7y ago

> You will note that your own source estimates a large benefit of maintaining a lockdown until June 1, and considers maintaining the lockdown until July 1 essentially a wash. That's hardly a ringing endorsement of your views. I provided the source to show that models are being formed. My own views materially differ from the authors', particularly on that point. > overwhelming the health care system causes preventable deaths from other causes, as well as preventable deaths and burnouts among exhausted health care professionals. Well, but what we've actually done is exactly that, in the opposite direction. Rather than our healthcare system being crushed by hordes of covid patients, across the US in places that aren't being ravaged (so, everywhere that isn't new york/new jersey/etc), we are dramatically scaling _down_ our healthcare capacity due to having furloughed tens of thousands of medical workers for the exact reason that people are postponing elective surgeries and other preventative measures that we know reduce mortality. In other words, you're right about preventable deaths from other causes, but we actually are causing those right now by being locked down.