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Actually, your kind of wrong. The USA didn't lock down. Individual states locked down, at different rates. Some didn't lock down at all. Take a look at the

by JPKab 7y ago

Actually, your kind of wrong. The USA didn't lock down. Individual states locked down, at different rates. Some didn't lock down at all. Take a look at the data and see if you can find a difference between the early and late lockdown states, particularly the ones that border each other. I'm amazed at how blind people on HN are to the fact that the entire nation didn't take a homogenous approach to this at all. We have 50 different strategies that we're deployed.

greedo 7y ago
You can be pedantic all you want, but there was a lockdown. It wasn't Federally initiated, and each state locked down to differing degrees, at different times, but they locked down. No one said it was homogenous; it's amazing how blind people on HN are to strawman arguments. Trying to tease out the data your asking for isn't possible due to inadequate reporting, inadequate testing, and the fact that travel between states is free.
- JPKab 7y ago
  I'm not being pedantic. In this case, a relevant factor that you consider irrelevant out of convenience is being ignored. Call it pedantic all you want. It matters. Not all states locked down, at all. That matters. Travel between states, for the most part, fell to record low rates. This happened voluntarily, before legally mandated lockdowns were triggered. You asked "what would have happened if we hadn't locked down." I pointed out that not all places locked down, and many locked down later. "Trying to tease out the data your asking for isn't possible due to inadequate reporting, inadequate testing, and the fact that travel between states is free" It's not hard to look at the Johns Hopkins data set, which contains data at the county level for the US. Not much "teasing out" to do there. It's right there. If we use admitted cases as a benchmark for actual infections, assuming it's proportional at a relatively constant level, it's not hard to do.

by JPKab 7y ago

greedo 7y ago

You can be pedantic all you want, but there was a lockdown. It wasn't Federally initiated, and each state locked down to differing degrees, at different times, but they locked down. No one said it was homogenous; it's amazing how blind people on HN are to strawman arguments. Trying to tease out the data your asking for isn't possible due to inadequate reporting, inadequate testing, and the fact that travel between states is free.

JPKab 7y ago
I'm not being pedantic. In this case, a relevant factor that you consider irrelevant out of convenience is being ignored. Call it pedantic all you want. It matters. Not all states locked down, at all. That matters. Travel between states, for the most part, fell to record low rates. This happened voluntarily, before legally mandated lockdowns were triggered. You asked "what would have happened if we hadn't locked down." I pointed out that not all places locked down, and many locked down later. "Trying to tease out the data your asking for isn't possible due to inadequate reporting, inadequate testing, and the fact that travel between states is free" It's not hard to look at the Johns Hopkins data set, which contains data at the county level for the US. Not much "teasing out" to do there. It's right there. If we use admitted cases as a benchmark for actual infections, assuming it's proportional at a relatively constant level, it's not hard to do.