3 ms·

Barring a miracle, mass production of a vaccine is at least 9 months away. Likely more like a year+ There's no better treatments coming. We've been fighting

by treis 7y ago

Barring a miracle, mass production of a vaccine is at least 9 months away. Likely more like a year+ There's no better treatments coming. We've been fighting viral pneumonia since the dawn of medicine and the tool kit is pretty sparse. Finding anything nearing a cure or even a 20% improvement is wishful thinking. Our health care capacity is adequate. NYC got to ~30% infected and while I'm sure none of the medical workers want to repeat the experience the level of care remained good. Any capacity increase is going to come with only marginally improved outcomes. There's no purpose in extending the lockdown. Either we can get back to something resembling normal life and control the spread or we can't and everyone gets infected. Extending the lockdown is just delaying that day of reckoning.

lazyasciiart 7y ago
We can't control the spread until we can test people for the disease. As multiple leaders have stated, the lockdowns need to continue until we build up testing capabilities. For instance in WA, the governor said they are waiting for "widely-available testing, quick isolation for those who may have the virus, identifying people who came into contact with a positive case and getting them into quarantine."
- makomk 7y ago
  The only country where this seems to have even vaguely worked is South Korea, and the US is already testing much more people for coronavirus than South Korea even in per-capita terms. Has been for a while. Now, the New York Times editorial board has been pushing the idea that you're behind South Korea because more of your tests are coming back positive - but the way they dropped that number is by using stricter social distancing measures to drop transmission rates, not increasing the number of tests. That doesn't seem to be happening in the US even with a full lockdown, and we don't really know why. Basically, all of the US media reporting around testing has been terrible, misleading, partisan nonsense designed to create an imaginary testing gap that can be blamed on the current president to try and kick him out of office in November. Publications like the Times are quite open about why they're doing it. The UK isn't much better though.
  - lazyasciiart 7y ago
    I don't care what the comparison to South Korea is, and I don't expect other countries to have already achieved this. I care whether testing is widely available enough that a person who finds out that they had dinner with someone last night who has coronavirus can go and get tested immediately, not wait until they are short of breath and feverish. Perhaps you would like to read Dr Fauci talking about why we need more testing capacity before relaxing lockdown rules? https://time.com/5826161/anthony-fauci-covid-19-testing-capabilities/ https://time.com/5826161/anthony-fauci-covid-19-testing-capa... Or Gottlieb, Trump's appointee for the FDA? https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-economy-recession https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-corona... If you are dismissing "all of the US media reporting around testing" as terrible, misleading, partisan nonsense, then you are either looking for a particular opinion to be represented that isn't, or, more likely, you aren't reading all of it.
    - makomk 7y ago
      If no country has ever achieved this, what's even the evidence that it's actually possible? There are some pretty fundamental reasons to think it wouldn't work, not least of which are asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and barely symptomatic spread, and the fairly impressive R0 of this particular disease. If the person you're having dinner with doesn't have symptoms and you have a slight sniffle, how do you even know to get tested? Also, how the amount of coronavirus testing the US is doing stacks up to other countries isn't an "particular opinion" - it's a fact, and it's a fact that pretty much the entire US press seems to have managed to misinform everyone about, including the fact check columns.
      - lazyasciiart 7y ago
        Thats what contact tracing is. Your dinner companion finds out they are sick two days later, and everyone they were in contact with gets found and tested. The amount of testing the US is doing is indeed a fact, and it's widely reported in US press.
dwaltrip 7y ago
> There's no purpose in extending the lockdown. The comment you are replying to should have also mentioned greatly increased testing capacity as well as contact-tracing. Extending the lockdown allows us to build up this infrastructure so that restrictions can be reduced while still preventing exponential spread.
swader999 7y ago
Antibody therapies and perhaps decent antiviral treatments could come before a vaccine.

by treis 7y ago

lazyasciiart 7y ago

We can't control the spread until we can test people for the disease. As multiple leaders have stated, the lockdowns need to continue until we build up testing capabilities. For instance in WA, the governor said they are waiting for "widely-available testing, quick isolation for those who may have the virus, identifying people who came into contact with a positive case and getting them into quarantine."

makomk 7y ago
The only country where this seems to have even vaguely worked is South Korea, and the US is already testing much more people for coronavirus than South Korea even in per-capita terms. Has been for a while. Now, the New York Times editorial board has been pushing the idea that you're behind South Korea because more of your tests are coming back positive - but the way they dropped that number is by using stricter social distancing measures to drop transmission rates, not increasing the number of tests. That doesn't seem to be happening in the US even with a full lockdown, and we don't really know why. Basically, all of the US media reporting around testing has been terrible, misleading, partisan nonsense designed to create an imaginary testing gap that can be blamed on the current president to try and kick him out of office in November. Publications like the Times are quite open about why they're doing it. The UK isn't much better though.
- lazyasciiart 7y ago
  I don't care what the comparison to South Korea is, and I don't expect other countries to have already achieved this. I care whether testing is widely available enough that a person who finds out that they had dinner with someone last night who has coronavirus can go and get tested immediately, not wait until they are short of breath and feverish. Perhaps you would like to read Dr Fauci talking about why we need more testing capacity before relaxing lockdown rules? https://time.com/5826161/anthony-fauci-covid-19-testing-capabilities/ https://time.com/5826161/anthony-fauci-covid-19-testing-capa... Or Gottlieb, Trump's appointee for the FDA? https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-economy-recession https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-corona... If you are dismissing "all of the US media reporting around testing" as terrible, misleading, partisan nonsense, then you are either looking for a particular opinion to be represented that isn't, or, more likely, you aren't reading all of it.
  - makomk 7y ago
    If no country has ever achieved this, what's even the evidence that it's actually possible? There are some pretty fundamental reasons to think it wouldn't work, not least of which are asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and barely symptomatic spread, and the fairly impressive R0 of this particular disease. If the person you're having dinner with doesn't have symptoms and you have a slight sniffle, how do you even know to get tested? Also, how the amount of coronavirus testing the US is doing stacks up to other countries isn't an "particular opinion" - it's a fact, and it's a fact that pretty much the entire US press seems to have managed to misinform everyone about, including the fact check columns.
    - lazyasciiart 7y ago
      Thats what contact tracing is. Your dinner companion finds out they are sick two days later, and everyone they were in contact with gets found and tested. The amount of testing the US is doing is indeed a fact, and it's widely reported in US press.

dwaltrip 7y ago

> There's no purpose in extending the lockdown. The comment you are replying to should have also mentioned greatly increased testing capacity as well as contact-tracing. Extending the lockdown allows us to build up this infrastructure so that restrictions can be reduced while still preventing exponential spread.

swader999 7y ago

Antibody therapies and perhaps decent antiviral treatments could come before a vaccine.