2 ms·
Depends. In the conditions where coronavirus killed strictly only the old and weak and it had 2 percent death rate it would on average kill people around 2 year
by mewpmewp2 7y ago
Depends. In the conditions where coronavirus killed strictly only the old and weak and it had 2 percent death rate it would on average kill people around 2 years before their actual deaths. Let's just say everyone who would have died at 88 will now die at 86 instead.
This means that any costs are just advanced 2 years.
But since those 86 year olds do not provide value to the economy at this point, only consume resources, it will probably offset that by some margin. 2 years worth of resources and care.
Very simplistic way to look at this, but it could also make sense even if not only the elderies die.
There is a possibility it is a net positive for the economy.
- maxerickson 7y agoAverage age is much lower than 86. Michigan has had hundreds of people in their 40's and 50's die (~13% of deaths): https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173---,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_9817...
- mewpmewp2 7y agoYeah, I described extremes (for simple maths) to just show that it's plausible that a virus could have this effect given those conditions. If you look here, you can see only 72% who die are above 64 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... Median I would guesstimate based on this data to be around 72 or so. But the point is how many people are dying who weren't productive members of society and how many years these people would have lived if coronavirus didn't strike them. For illustration purposes if it always killed those first who were closest to death anyway and death rate was 2% it would mean I guess 74 * 0,02 years lost for median person or 1.5 years. This number will increase of course because true nature is more random. And to be completely fair then if in US each year dies a bit less than 1% of people and not all of them at old age. So let's say it's 0.6% dying of old age, then 2% death rate might mean around 3 years lost for median person. But as I said this are illustrative and non-precise calculations. If I had to guess I would say it's reasonable to estimate that median person would lose 1 - 7 years of their life due to coronavirus.
- tinus_hn 7y agoIf you calculate generously it’s about 1000 people out of 4 million employed. A tragedy that’s just not going to have a large economic impact.
- paradox242 7y agoThere are entire industries around elder care and providing for their needs. I would not call this "no value to the economoy".