5 ms·

I've followed the virus from the very beginning. About six weeks ago the media decided blanket lockdowns were the only reasonable solution. Flatten the curve b

by eric_b 6y ago

I've followed the virus from the very beginning. About six weeks ago the media decided blanket lockdowns were the only reasonable solution. Flatten the curve became the mantra, dozens of models showing millions of dead in every country were trotted out as evidence and justification for draconian shutdowns. Any scientist that had a differing viewpoint was a monster who didn't value human life. Any public health official who suggested maybe just the most vulnerable be isolated was met with scorn and a heap of emotional but illogical arguments. Look up David Katz [1]. Only Fox News would let him talk until Bill Maher put him on. He's eminently sensible, and he was silenced by the media. Blanket lockdown (that is, all ages locked down) for this virus has never made sense in Western democracies. China did it because they could, and they have a command economy and a willing populace. The UK knew it didn't make sense from day one, but caved to public pressure. Sweden is still going strong, thank God, as they will be the country that shows the rest of the world how to live with, and ultimately beat, this disease. Norway just let the youngest kids go back to school, smartly, to increase herd immunity with less personal impact. It will be clear in several more months that the Sweden strategy is the only way to minimize total harm and navigate this crisis. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E [Edit]: Good job HN participants. Way to prove the story correct.

vmception 6y ago
Are there any ways to get into Sweden right now? Considering Midsommar I heard their border was closed, but I think the exceptions make the rule, if there are any
- tapland 6y ago
  Be a citizen or permanent resident, or have important business in the country. Midsommar is celebrated on the countryside with the family. Get IKEA delivery of foods (available in some US locations), boil a ton of small potatoes and get some wormwood(Swedish:malört) spiced vodka.
  - vmception 6y ago
    I can create a business rationale. But wanna stay a while.
tapland 6y ago
Stockholm has about 1300 deaths per million (excluding our systematic late reporting) and it's still increasing and no sign of the curve tapering off. Also, probably the wrong country to praise a capital G God about, but that's just a cultural thing. (yeah, everyone says it does since a week ago but data is reported late and it has been showing a downward trend the last few days for many weeks, it's not)
- rurban 6y ago
  Sweden COVID-19 numbers are much lower than the flu numbers in the years before. Now they are at 2000 deaths total, in the years before they were at 1800 weekly. That's almost everywhere, besides a few outliers which need to be studied. The global trend is that it is a very weak flu season, despite there's no vaccine, no proper treatment (ventilators turning up wrong at the end of the wave) and extremely high spread (R0 of 5). Turns out people's immune reaction can fight SARS-CoV-2 much better than the normal influenza strains, for which vaccination exist. Maybe because it's so close to the common cold our body is accustomed to. Everybody likes to play the numbers and curves games, but don't make it political by deliberately faking it. Like the NY Times or FT curves lately. Even euromomo.eu changed its curves recently so they do lookh more dramatic. Not backed by the absolute numbers. They suddenly invented 32.000 unaccounted new deaths out of the magicians hat, not telling us were these new numbers came from. Some countries forbid pathologies on COVID-19 cases and forbid classification post-mortem. But this only applies to elderlies dying at home alone. But this would only apply to countries like the US with no healthcare system. Like the New Jersey case of 70 seniors. Everybody else goes to the hospitals.
  - jsnell 6y ago
    The mortality rate from all causes in Stockholm is more than double the average from the previous five years. Suggesting it is the equivalent of a "weak flu season" is an outright lie. And the bit about our immune system being able to fight it off well due to a similarity with the common cold is just something you made up, right?
  - tapland 6y ago
    No, we haven't had 1800 flu deaths weekly. That sounds about right for _all deaths by all causes per week_ though. Where did you get the idea that 100% of deaths this time of year is because of the flu? Around 2k deaths is a common but serious flu, and corona has passed that, and we don't see a peak.
ekidd 6y ago
> About six weeks ago the media decided blanket lockdowns were the only reasonable solution. I think the big psychological driver was the situation in Italy and Spain: The overwhelmed hospitals, the localized rationing of certain medical care, and front-line medical workers who were getting sick (and sometimes dying). I guess it turns out that nobody wants to watch their medical system collapse? > Any public health official who suggested maybe just the most vulnerable be isolated was met with scorn So how would you imagine this working? Healthy people in their 70s who live in standalone homes might be able to self-isolate. (I know a handful of highly-disciplined people who are planning to remain isolated until we get a vaccine, even if it takes until the fall 2021.) But people who live in multi-generational homes, or who rely on assistance, or who live in apartment buildings probably can't self-isolate. And how would we handle people in assisted living? Do the caregivers "live in" for a month-long shift? The death rates in the over-70 group are pretty bad (and even healthy people of that age usually have some pre-existing conditions), and the death rates in the over-80 group are ugly. For the population at large, it looks like ~0.2% of NYC is already dead, and ~20% of the population has antibodies. So we'd be looking at something like a 1% fatality rate, which would work out to over 2 million dead nationwide before we reached herd immunity. And that's not counting any long-term damage to survivors from blood clots, oxygen deprivation, or kidney damage (Wuhan is allegedly seeing an uptick in dialysis patients). I don't know how common or serious these complications are at a population level. > It will be clear in several more months that the Sweden strategy is the only way to minimize total harm and navigate this crisis. I wish I had a crystal ball, so that I could actually know what worked the best. You seem very certain that Sweden's on the right track. Some Asian countries seem to be focusing on minimizing gatherings, masking, contact tracing and isolation of the infected, which allows them to have a partially functioning economy. All of these solutions are awful in different ways. I'm just not convinced that the right answer is as clear as you make it out to be, certainly not without a lot more detail about how to successfully isolate people over 70 from an airborne virus.
dennis_jeeves 6y ago
>Any scientist that had a differing viewpoint was a monster who didn't value human life. Any public health official who suggested maybe just the most vulnerable be isolated was met with scorn and a heap of emotional but illogical arguments. All very predictable though.

by eric_b 6y ago

vmception 6y ago

Are there any ways to get into Sweden right now? Considering Midsommar I heard their border was closed, but I think the exceptions make the rule, if there are any

tapland 6y ago
Be a citizen or permanent resident, or have important business in the country. Midsommar is celebrated on the countryside with the family. Get IKEA delivery of foods (available in some US locations), boil a ton of small potatoes and get some wormwood(Swedish:malört) spiced vodka.
- vmception 6y ago
  I can create a business rationale. But wanna stay a while.

tapland 6y ago

Stockholm has about 1300 deaths per million (excluding our systematic late reporting) and it's still increasing and no sign of the curve tapering off. Also, probably the wrong country to praise a capital G God about, but that's just a cultural thing. (yeah, everyone says it does since a week ago but data is reported late and it has been showing a downward trend the last few days for many weeks, it's not)

rurban 6y ago
Sweden COVID-19 numbers are much lower than the flu numbers in the years before. Now they are at 2000 deaths total, in the years before they were at 1800 weekly. That's almost everywhere, besides a few outliers which need to be studied. The global trend is that it is a very weak flu season, despite there's no vaccine, no proper treatment (ventilators turning up wrong at the end of the wave) and extremely high spread (R0 of 5). Turns out people's immune reaction can fight SARS-CoV-2 much better than the normal influenza strains, for which vaccination exist. Maybe because it's so close to the common cold our body is accustomed to. Everybody likes to play the numbers and curves games, but don't make it political by deliberately faking it. Like the NY Times or FT curves lately. Even euromomo.eu changed its curves recently so they do lookh more dramatic. Not backed by the absolute numbers. They suddenly invented 32.000 unaccounted new deaths out of the magicians hat, not telling us were these new numbers came from. Some countries forbid pathologies on COVID-19 cases and forbid classification post-mortem. But this only applies to elderlies dying at home alone. But this would only apply to countries like the US with no healthcare system. Like the New Jersey case of 70 seniors. Everybody else goes to the hospitals.
- jsnell 6y ago
  The mortality rate from all causes in Stockholm is more than double the average from the previous five years. Suggesting it is the equivalent of a "weak flu season" is an outright lie. And the bit about our immune system being able to fight it off well due to a similarity with the common cold is just something you made up, right?
- tapland 6y ago
  No, we haven't had 1800 flu deaths weekly. That sounds about right for _all deaths by all causes per week_ though. Where did you get the idea that 100% of deaths this time of year is because of the flu? Around 2k deaths is a common but serious flu, and corona has passed that, and we don't see a peak.

ekidd 6y ago

> About six weeks ago the media decided blanket lockdowns were the only reasonable solution. I think the big psychological driver was the situation in Italy and Spain: The overwhelmed hospitals, the localized rationing of certain medical care, and front-line medical workers who were getting sick (and sometimes dying). I guess it turns out that nobody wants to watch their medical system collapse? > Any public health official who suggested maybe just the most vulnerable be isolated was met with scorn So how would you imagine this working? Healthy people in their 70s who live in standalone homes might be able to self-isolate. (I know a handful of highly-disciplined people who are planning to remain isolated until we get a vaccine, even if it takes until the fall 2021.) But people who live in multi-generational homes, or who rely on assistance, or who live in apartment buildings probably can't self-isolate. And how would we handle people in assisted living? Do the caregivers "live in" for a month-long shift? The death rates in the over-70 group are pretty bad (and even healthy people of that age usually have some pre-existing conditions), and the death rates in the over-80 group are ugly. For the population at large, it looks like ~0.2% of NYC is already dead, and ~20% of the population has antibodies. So we'd be looking at something like a 1% fatality rate, which would work out to over 2 million dead nationwide before we reached herd immunity. And that's not counting any long-term damage to survivors from blood clots, oxygen deprivation, or kidney damage (Wuhan is allegedly seeing an uptick in dialysis patients). I don't know how common or serious these complications are at a population level. > It will be clear in several more months that the Sweden strategy is the only way to minimize total harm and navigate this crisis. I wish I had a crystal ball, so that I could actually know what worked the best. You seem very certain that Sweden's on the right track. Some Asian countries seem to be focusing on minimizing gatherings, masking, contact tracing and isolation of the infected, which allows them to have a partially functioning economy. All of these solutions are awful in different ways. I'm just not convinced that the right answer is as clear as you make it out to be, certainly not without a lot more detail about how to successfully isolate people over 70 from an airborne virus.

dennis_jeeves 6y ago

>Any scientist that had a differing viewpoint was a monster who didn't value human life. Any public health official who suggested maybe just the most vulnerable be isolated was met with scorn and a heap of emotional but illogical arguments. All very predictable though.