4 ms·

Probably downvotes because the answer to your question is the same as to 90% of all uninformed questions online - "we don't know". There are so many unknowns, t

by roel_v 6y ago

Probably downvotes because the answer to your question is the same as to 90% of all uninformed questions online - "we don't know". There are so many unknowns, things go day by day or week by week at best. I too get annoyed at the 1000'd idiot asking 'but will I be able to go on holiday in August?'. Not saying you're an idiot, just trying to explain why others, like me, would be annoyed at your post and would want to see less posts like it.

thereisnospork 6y ago
The problem is that is been a month now: not having an answer is flatly unacceptable governance.
- roel_v 6y ago
  Why?
  - thereisnospork 6y ago
    You think it is acceptable that our government either: A. Has no plan behind what they are doing or B. Has a plan, but is refusing to share? Because that's my reading their press release. Please enlighten me why you feel that the current state of affairs in disclosure and planning regarding the future of the lock-down represents leadership on the correct side of competent?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
icelancer 6y ago
Then it would be best if Gov. Newsom and the other elected officials put hard data and target metrics out, not platitudes and "we must get better before we reopen" statements.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 6y ago
  They don't want to be beholden to an arbitrary goal they've made in the past - they want to be able to move the goalposts forward or backward and (hopefully) translate the latest advice from experts into actual policy. I agree with you though - some better expectations-setting would be nice, and probably encourage more people to comply.
- roel_v 6y ago
  Well they don't know, and neither does anyone else. So it's either throw out an arbitrary goal now, and run the risk of having to change it and people saying 'you keep moving the goal post', or not doing it and people saying 'there's no target or coherent policy'. There's no winning here. Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects, and then we all agree that because there are unknown unknowns, that's pretty much impossible. How is this any different, if not an order of magnitude more complicated still? I think the main problem is people expecting government to know everything because - well, they're the government, probably? But they're just a bunch of people like you and me. The fact of the matter is that nobody knows that much. You can complain about that, but that doesn't change the fact that some things are just unknowable at the timeframes we're working on.
  - Marsymars 6y ago
    It doesn't seem like there really are unknown unknowns in this case though. You can just fix all your non-quantifiable assumptions at current levels, and set some numbers for the quantifiable ones. The problem is that any numbers you set that way either involve many deaths, or many months of lockdown, so no politician wants to say them out loud.
  - icelancer 6y ago
    >> Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects, and then we all agree that because there are unknown unknowns, that's pretty much impossible. That's not what I - or most people - are asking for. We're asking for something akin to the agile product cycle. Give us blocks of time you are spending on the problem, tell us what you are doing in that block of time in a transparent and modular way, and tell us how much time per project you are spending and what you hope to accomplish in that time period. It's... pretty simple. No one is asking Gov. Newsom to say "we'll be back in business in 4 weeks" but he's got to do better than zero data and zero transparency.

by roel_v 6y ago

thereisnospork 6y ago

The problem is that is been a month now: not having an answer is flatly unacceptable governance.

roel_v 6y ago
Why?
- thereisnospork 6y ago
  You think it is acceptable that our government either: A. Has no plan behind what they are doing or B. Has a plan, but is refusing to share? Because that's my reading their press release. Please enlighten me why you feel that the current state of affairs in disclosure and planning regarding the future of the lock-down represents leadership on the correct side of competent?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

icelancer 6y ago

Then it would be best if Gov. Newsom and the other elected officials put hard data and target metrics out, not platitudes and "we must get better before we reopen" statements.

rrrrrrrrrrrryan 6y ago
They don't want to be beholden to an arbitrary goal they've made in the past - they want to be able to move the goalposts forward or backward and (hopefully) translate the latest advice from experts into actual policy. I agree with you though - some better expectations-setting would be nice, and probably encourage more people to comply.
roel_v 6y ago
Well they don't know, and neither does anyone else. So it's either throw out an arbitrary goal now, and run the risk of having to change it and people saying 'you keep moving the goal post', or not doing it and people saying 'there's no target or coherent policy'. There's no winning here. Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects, and then we all agree that because there are unknown unknowns, that's pretty much impossible. How is this any different, if not an order of magnitude more complicated still? I think the main problem is people expecting government to know everything because - well, they're the government, probably? But they're just a bunch of people like you and me. The fact of the matter is that nobody knows that much. You can complain about that, but that doesn't change the fact that some things are just unknowable at the timeframes we're working on.
- Marsymars 6y ago
  It doesn't seem like there really are unknown unknowns in this case though. You can just fix all your non-quantifiable assumptions at current levels, and set some numbers for the quantifiable ones. The problem is that any numbers you set that way either involve many deaths, or many months of lockdown, so no politician wants to say them out loud.
- icelancer 6y ago
  >> Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects, and then we all agree that because there are unknown unknowns, that's pretty much impossible. That's not what I - or most people - are asking for. We're asking for something akin to the agile product cycle. Give us blocks of time you are spending on the problem, tell us what you are doing in that block of time in a transparent and modular way, and tell us how much time per project you are spending and what you hope to accomplish in that time period. It's... pretty simple. No one is asking Gov. Newsom to say "we'll be back in business in 4 weeks" but he's got to do better than zero data and zero transparency.