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> The problem is that the shelter-in-place rule is already limited in effectiveness I've mostly read that the "control" we have over covid-19 now is due to the

• greendave 6y ago
  Perhaps badly worded on my part. Limited != none. Clearly SIP has bent the curve. But new cases that are being reported now were transmitted well after SIP came into effect, i.e. are happening despite SIP. And absent other policy changes, we should continue to expect to see more of them. What changes we do see are in the other direction - more traffic, more outside activity, etc. Practically, increase (or non-decrease) in weekly number of cases in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties suggests as much[1]. [1] https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
  • r00fus 6y ago
    To expect the cases to go down is not realistic. We're in a battle to prevent exponential growth. NlogN is managable. N^2 is not.
• numpad0 6y ago
  SIP being fully effective would mean a monotonic reduction towards eradication, whereas it’s merely giving us a control
• antpls 6y ago
  One way would be to look at Sweden's situation in a few weeks. They didn't impose lockdown on citizens. Granted, lifestyle in Sweden and infrastructure may be different than the rest of the world.