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What evidence is there that the SIP is limited in effectiveness? The existing evidence I am aware of is starkly contra that assertion. Anecdotes of seeing peopl

What evidence is there that the SIP is limited in effectiveness? The existing evidence I am aware of is starkly contra that assertion. Anecdotes of seeing people too close together in the park are not evidence of an ineffective SIP.

greendave 6y ago
It's not that SIP does nothing - it's that past a certain point, the rates are what they are. San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have seen a slight increase in the number of cases last week over the previous week. Other Bay Area counties have seen a slight decrease [1]. I don't see how increased traffic/travel as we're starting to see [2] will do anything other than increase transmissions. [1] https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ [2] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/Bay-Area-stay-at-home-orders-don-t-keep-15225537.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/Bay-A...
- plorkyeran 6y ago
  The rates staying flat rather than going up is already a success, not a sign that SIP has failed.
  - toasterlovin 6y ago
    But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity. If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, then the lockdowns are not working (at least not here in Oregon, where daily number of new cases have been flat for about 2 weeks; I'm not sure what things look like in California).
    - Enginerrrd 6y ago
      There's also the goal of slowing down and stalling in hopes of getting a vaccine, better treatments, production to catch up with supply shortages for healthcare facilities, and allowing healthcare facilities to increase capacity, etc.
      - elliekelly 6y ago
        Has there been any research on survival rates over time? If given the choice of getting COVID-19 today or two months from now I would much prefer the later infection because that’s two more months of doctors learning how best to treat the disease. Even delaying infection by a week seems like it would offer a better fighting chance. The medical community is learning as much as they can as quickly as they can and that benefits everyone who will eventually get sick.
        rtkwe 6y ago
        It’s complicated a bit because of limited hospital capacity and related treatment supplies. If where ever you are is still below saturation later is better than now probably but once your local system is in the band where they’re running out of supplies things can get pretty dire.
      - treis 6y ago
        Barring a miracle, mass production of a vaccine is at least 9 months away. Likely more like a year+ There's no better treatments coming. We've been fighting viral pneumonia since the dawn of medicine and the tool kit is pretty sparse. Finding anything nearing a cure or even a 20% improvement is wishful thinking. Our health care capacity is adequate. NYC got to ~30% infected and while I'm sure none of the medical workers want to repeat the experience the level of care remained good. Any capacity increase is going to come with only marginally improved outcomes. There's no purpose in extending the lockdown. Either we can get back to something resembling normal life and control the spread or we can't and everyone gets infected. Extending the lockdown is just delaying that day of reckoning.
- usaar333 6y ago
  I'm confused how the SF chronicle is calculating numbers. Santa Clara added 183 cases in last 7 days vs. 256 in the previous week (quite a downturn in the face of increasing test capacity). They might have gotten hit by a glitch where Santa Clara didn't report for 3 days. https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara
- tptacek 6y ago
  You probably need to be careful with the numbers, because they're not necessarily a reflection of new cases so much as new testing.
  - Scipio_Afri 6y ago
    The US has not grown capacity over the last two weeks. Its pretty much flat lined.
    - usaar333 6y ago
      That is not true in Santa Clara county at all. 600 to 1000 tests per day in 2 weeks https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
- jackcosgrove 6y ago
  I thought the purpose of SIP orders was to prevent overwhelming hospital ICUs. Covid case numbers are upstream of that but it's not 1-1.
  - holler 6y ago
    That was/is the precise reason given, so it's hard to imagine this going on much longer given that hospitals are doing fine. I think another month is going to lead to chaos and many people rebelling.
    - lazyasciiart 6y ago
      Ah yes, the argument that protective measures are succeeding and therefore they are no longer necessary. Completely irrational in a scenario where the danger being protected against hadn't gone away.
      - holler 6y ago
        Where did I "argue" that protective measures are succeeding therefore X? I'm merely stating that you cannot have a society of 350M people completely stop what they're doing for 6 months and not have disastrous consequences. At some point we have to choose whether the lives we're potentially saving after lockdown month X vs the emergent problems from shut down are worth it.
        scubbo 6y ago
        I think they were attributing that argument to the people you described "rebelling", not to you yourself.
        holler 6y ago
        gotcha. I think it's disingenuous to effectively say that people are too stupid to make their own decisions regarding personal safety. There're growing calls to ease the lockdowns right now from people with top scientific credentials. I personally know doctors working in large hospitals who have said it's time to ease restrictions in most areas. It doesn't have to be all-or nothing. https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start-easing-the-coronavirus-lockdowns/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start...
0xff00ffee 6y ago
You can't have a double-blind with only one side. Unfortunately the other side is unethical.
user5994461 6y ago
Here have a look https://coronaprogress.com https://coronaprogress.com I made a map where you can move day by day to see the progression. The lockdown has minimal effects, cases have been increasing steadily for a while in every country, seemingly as quick as there are tests.

greendave 6y ago

It's not that SIP does nothing - it's that past a certain point, the rates are what they are. San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have seen a slight increase in the number of cases last week over the previous week. Other Bay Area counties have seen a slight decrease [1]. I don't see how increased traffic/travel as we're starting to see [2] will do anything other than increase transmissions. [1] https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ [2] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/Bay-Area-stay-at-home-orders-don-t-keep-15225537.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/Bay-A...

plorkyeran 6y ago
The rates staying flat rather than going up is already a success, not a sign that SIP has failed.
- toasterlovin 6y ago
  But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity. If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, then the lockdowns are not working (at least not here in Oregon, where daily number of new cases have been flat for about 2 weeks; I'm not sure what things look like in California).
  - Enginerrrd 6y ago
    There's also the goal of slowing down and stalling in hopes of getting a vaccine, better treatments, production to catch up with supply shortages for healthcare facilities, and allowing healthcare facilities to increase capacity, etc.
    - elliekelly 6y ago
      Has there been any research on survival rates over time? If given the choice of getting COVID-19 today or two months from now I would much prefer the later infection because that’s two more months of doctors learning how best to treat the disease. Even delaying infection by a week seems like it would offer a better fighting chance. The medical community is learning as much as they can as quickly as they can and that benefits everyone who will eventually get sick.
      - rtkwe 6y ago
        It’s complicated a bit because of limited hospital capacity and related treatment supplies. If where ever you are is still below saturation later is better than now probably but once your local system is in the band where they’re running out of supplies things can get pretty dire.
    - treis 6y ago
      Barring a miracle, mass production of a vaccine is at least 9 months away. Likely more like a year+ There's no better treatments coming. We've been fighting viral pneumonia since the dawn of medicine and the tool kit is pretty sparse. Finding anything nearing a cure or even a 20% improvement is wishful thinking. Our health care capacity is adequate. NYC got to ~30% infected and while I'm sure none of the medical workers want to repeat the experience the level of care remained good. Any capacity increase is going to come with only marginally improved outcomes. There's no purpose in extending the lockdown. Either we can get back to something resembling normal life and control the spread or we can't and everyone gets infected. Extending the lockdown is just delaying that day of reckoning.
usaar333 6y ago
I'm confused how the SF chronicle is calculating numbers. Santa Clara added 183 cases in last 7 days vs. 256 in the previous week (quite a downturn in the face of increasing test capacity). They might have gotten hit by a glitch where Santa Clara didn't report for 3 days. https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara
tptacek 6y ago
You probably need to be careful with the numbers, because they're not necessarily a reflection of new cases so much as new testing.
- Scipio_Afri 6y ago
  The US has not grown capacity over the last two weeks. Its pretty much flat lined.
  - usaar333 6y ago
    That is not true in Santa Clara county at all. 600 to 1000 tests per day in 2 weeks https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
jackcosgrove 6y ago
I thought the purpose of SIP orders was to prevent overwhelming hospital ICUs. Covid case numbers are upstream of that but it's not 1-1.
- holler 6y ago
  That was/is the precise reason given, so it's hard to imagine this going on much longer given that hospitals are doing fine. I think another month is going to lead to chaos and many people rebelling.
  - lazyasciiart 6y ago
    Ah yes, the argument that protective measures are succeeding and therefore they are no longer necessary. Completely irrational in a scenario where the danger being protected against hadn't gone away.
    - holler 6y ago
      Where did I "argue" that protective measures are succeeding therefore X? I'm merely stating that you cannot have a society of 350M people completely stop what they're doing for 6 months and not have disastrous consequences. At some point we have to choose whether the lives we're potentially saving after lockdown month X vs the emergent problems from shut down are worth it.
      - scubbo 6y ago
        I think they were attributing that argument to the people you described "rebelling", not to you yourself.
        holler 6y ago
        gotcha. I think it's disingenuous to effectively say that people are too stupid to make their own decisions regarding personal safety. There're growing calls to ease the lockdowns right now from people with top scientific credentials. I personally know doctors working in large hospitals who have said it's time to ease restrictions in most areas. It doesn't have to be all-or nothing. https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start-easing-the-coronavirus-lockdowns/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start...

0xff00ffee 6y ago

You can't have a double-blind with only one side. Unfortunately the other side is unethical.

user5994461 6y ago

Here have a look https://coronaprogress.com https://coronaprogress.com I made a map where you can move day by day to see the progression. The lockdown has minimal effects, cases have been increasing steadily for a while in every country, seemingly as quick as there are tests.