5 ms·

Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

26 points by smallgovt 6y ago

keithnz 6y ago
not sure they are a shining example, they are just over twice the population of NZ, they have had over 2000 deaths, we have had 19. Yesterday we had 1 new case. Today in NZ is the first day out of our strictest level of lockdown and a large number of businesses are going back to work as long as they follow strict distancing, and safe interactions. Also public facing businesses can't open, if you are a shop, you need delivery options or contactless pickup / payment options.
- mieses 6y ago
  There are some relevant differences between Sweden and New Zealand. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti-lockdown-immigrants/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti...
  - keithnz 6y ago
    what do you think are the relevant differences?
    - piva00 6y ago
      Being part of the EU, Schengen where people can travel abroad much more frequently due to distances. Also, it's common in the end of February to go skiing during Sportlov week so traveling to the hotspots in Austria and Italy was a bit more frequent for Swedes than New Zealanders, I assume.
3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago
How’s their economy?
- burner831234 6y ago
  What are you attempting to say/equivocate?
  - davidw 6y ago
    Probably something along the lines of their economy suffering quite a bit just the same.
  - 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago
    Was it some kind of forbidden question?
- peterpost2 6y ago
  Quite some people lost there jobs -Signed a guy who lost his job today :(
kilroy_jones 6y ago
And all it took was a few thousand unnecessary deaths. Vietnam and Taiwan temporarily shutdown, and the former had 0 deaths while the latter has had less than 10.
- keithnoizu 6y ago
  Not to mention turkey intervening to provide medical care to a dual citizen refused care in sweden.
- Herodotus38 6y ago
  Sweden’s population is 10 million. They have had 2194 deaths as per the WHO’s latest data: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200427-sitrep-98-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=90323472_4 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The US has a population 328 million, or roughly 33 times higher. On the face of it with rough calculations their per capita death rate if it was the Us would be around 70k deaths vs the 40k deaths we have so far. So I think it’s a good point you bring up.
  - davidw 6y ago
    > 40k deaths we have so far. You're off by at least 10,000.
    - Herodotus38 6y ago
      Ok so 50,000, maybe 60,000 but I think the point about Sweden having a higher per capita death rate stands at this point. Sure, in a week these numbers may change but based on the current numbers I think it is not controversial.
- cryptonector 6y ago
  Hmm? Plenty of countries that did shutdown did experience "a few thousand unnecessary deaths". What's your point? OP's and/or TFA's point, as well as many people's who talk about this, seems to be that Sweden is faring as well as its neighbors that did shutdown. That's a big deal. And did Taiwan shutdown? IIRC they did not. They were able to get way ahead of everyone and stop the spread of covid-19. Since most other countries did not, it's not fair to compare Sweden to Taiwan. Some people are bent on there being shutdowns no matter the cost, no matter the cost-benefit analysis, no matter if there is no real benefit.
URSpider94 6y ago
The title appears to break HN rules, as it doesn't match the title of the linked article. @dang?
olivermarks 6y ago
'In contrast with other countries where political leaders have fronted the national response to the crisis, Dr Tegnell has led the majority of news conferences' 'chief state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell is broadly popular in Sweden. An experienced scientist with more than 30 years in medicine, he is known for his relaxed demeanour and preference for pullovers. "He's a low-key person. I think people see him as a strong leader but not a very loud person, careful in what he's saying," reflects Emma Frans, a Swedish epidemiologist and science writer. "I think that's very comforting for many." She argues that many national and international media have been "searching for conflict" within the scientific community, whereas she believes there is a consensus that Anders Tegnell's approach is "quite positive", or at least "not worse than other strategies" ~ This seems a much better non partisan approach than the endless two party C19 press conference and criticism political warfare the US & UK have to endure
Marazan 6y ago
Sweden banned international flights from outside of Europe. Sweden banned gathering of more than 50 people. Sweden closed down the universities. Sweden permanently closed down 5 restraunts this weekend for flouting social distancing rules. And, most importantly, their cases are not plataueing, their deaths are not plataueing. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...
- tomohawk 6y ago
  Looks like a plataue to me https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=CAN+FRA+DEU+ITA+KOR+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi... These both use the same data, but the rolling average shows the trend.
  - new_realist 6y ago
    Sweden’s tolling average “peaked” two days ago. That’s not enough time to say anything definitive.
  - Marazan 6y ago
    That chart is garbage for Sweden, it is in no way a 7 day average of the arcgis data I posted. The official death total by day of death has a massive lag, if the out world in data chart was actually a 7 day average of it there would be a huge drop over the last week.
- akmarinov 6y ago
  They only banned >50 people last month.
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hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
One thing I think is important to point out is that Sweden has the highest percentage of people living alone of any country in the world, and it is much less common than, say, Italy to have older people living with younger people. Similar to how NYC, the densest place in the US, has been hit so much harder than elsewhere, I think it does at least make a good argument that approaches should be regionally based.
jariel 6y ago
Cases have not really plateaued. The large graph in the article is very misleading because it's a type of 'epi curve', the reporting is late on the data points making it always 'seem like' it's tilting down, even if it never actually is. With an epicure - you don't know until some time after the flattening that it has happened. Daily cases are here [1] It's inconsistent largely due to the cyclical nature of testing and reporting, but it's softly trending upwards. Note of course that it's not exploding, however. It'll be at least a couple of weeks before we see if it's plateauing. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
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Zenst 6y ago
Interesting that the population of Sweden is comparable to the population of London, England. Two ends of the population density factors. Yet comparing the number of deaths, they do seem most comparable. Not sure what to make from it though.
jinushaun 6y ago
Congrats to Sweden for "only" having 2,000 dead. Tell that to the over 56,000 dead Americans despite lockdown. Also, Sweden is under de facto lockdown even if they don't want to call it that.
- erikig 6y ago
  That said, it is important to note that Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world. Almost 40% higher than the US and at least 200-300% that of its neighbors. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-01-31..2020-04-10&country=CHN+DNK+FIN+DEU+NOR+SWE+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-mi... If the US had the same death rate, the total deaths would be closer to 80,000
  - piva00 6y ago
    Population size is only an upper bound limit for disease spread, it doesn't tell anything else so using per capita inference to extrapolate is pretty flawed.

26 points by smallgovt 6y ago

not sure they are a shining example, they are just over twice the population of NZ, they have had over 2000 deaths, we have had 19. Yesterday we had 1 new case. Today in NZ is the first day out of our strictest level of lockdown and a large number of businesses are going back to work as long as they follow strict distancing, and safe interactions. Also public facing businesses can't open, if you are a shop, you need delivery options or contactless pickup / payment options.

mieses 6y ago
There are some relevant differences between Sweden and New Zealand. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti-lockdown-immigrants/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti...
- keithnz 6y ago
  what do you think are the relevant differences?
  - piva00 6y ago
    Being part of the EU, Schengen where people can travel abroad much more frequently due to distances. Also, it's common in the end of February to go skiing during Sportlov week so traveling to the hotspots in Austria and Italy was a bit more frequent for Swedes than New Zealanders, I assume.

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago

How’s their economy?

burner831234 6y ago
What are you attempting to say/equivocate?
- davidw 6y ago
  Probably something along the lines of their economy suffering quite a bit just the same.
- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago
  Was it some kind of forbidden question?
peterpost2 6y ago
Quite some people lost there jobs -Signed a guy who lost his job today :(

kilroy_jones 6y ago

And all it took was a few thousand unnecessary deaths. Vietnam and Taiwan temporarily shutdown, and the former had 0 deaths while the latter has had less than 10.

keithnoizu 6y ago
Not to mention turkey intervening to provide medical care to a dual citizen refused care in sweden.
Herodotus38 6y ago
Sweden’s population is 10 million. They have had 2194 deaths as per the WHO’s latest data: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200427-sitrep-98-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=90323472_4 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The US has a population 328 million, or roughly 33 times higher. On the face of it with rough calculations their per capita death rate if it was the Us would be around 70k deaths vs the 40k deaths we have so far. So I think it’s a good point you bring up.
- davidw 6y ago
  > 40k deaths we have so far. You're off by at least 10,000.
  - Herodotus38 6y ago
    Ok so 50,000, maybe 60,000 but I think the point about Sweden having a higher per capita death rate stands at this point. Sure, in a week these numbers may change but based on the current numbers I think it is not controversial.
cryptonector 6y ago
Hmm? Plenty of countries that did shutdown did experience "a few thousand unnecessary deaths". What's your point? OP's and/or TFA's point, as well as many people's who talk about this, seems to be that Sweden is faring as well as its neighbors that did shutdown. That's a big deal. And did Taiwan shutdown? IIRC they did not. They were able to get way ahead of everyone and stop the spread of covid-19. Since most other countries did not, it's not fair to compare Sweden to Taiwan. Some people are bent on there being shutdowns no matter the cost, no matter the cost-benefit analysis, no matter if there is no real benefit.

URSpider94 6y ago

The title appears to break HN rules, as it doesn't match the title of the linked article. @dang?

olivermarks 6y ago

'In contrast with other countries where political leaders have fronted the national response to the crisis, Dr Tegnell has led the majority of news conferences' 'chief state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell is broadly popular in Sweden. An experienced scientist with more than 30 years in medicine, he is known for his relaxed demeanour and preference for pullovers. "He's a low-key person. I think people see him as a strong leader but not a very loud person, careful in what he's saying," reflects Emma Frans, a Swedish epidemiologist and science writer. "I think that's very comforting for many." She argues that many national and international media have been "searching for conflict" within the scientific community, whereas she believes there is a consensus that Anders Tegnell's approach is "quite positive", or at least "not worse than other strategies" ~ This seems a much better non partisan approach than the endless two party C19 press conference and criticism political warfare the US & UK have to endure

Marazan 6y ago

Sweden banned international flights from outside of Europe. Sweden banned gathering of more than 50 people. Sweden closed down the universities. Sweden permanently closed down 5 restraunts this weekend for flouting social distancing rules. And, most importantly, their cases are not plataueing, their deaths are not plataueing. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...

tomohawk 6y ago
Looks like a plataue to me https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=CAN+FRA+DEU+ITA+KOR+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi... These both use the same data, but the rolling average shows the trend.
- new_realist 6y ago
  Sweden’s tolling average “peaked” two days ago. That’s not enough time to say anything definitive.
- Marazan 6y ago
  That chart is garbage for Sweden, it is in no way a 7 day average of the arcgis data I posted. The official death total by day of death has a massive lag, if the out world in data chart was actually a 7 day average of it there would be a huge drop over the last week.
akmarinov 6y ago
They only banned >50 people last month.
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hn_throwaway_99 6y ago

One thing I think is important to point out is that Sweden has the highest percentage of people living alone of any country in the world, and it is much less common than, say, Italy to have older people living with younger people. Similar to how NYC, the densest place in the US, has been hit so much harder than elsewhere, I think it does at least make a good argument that approaches should be regionally based.

jariel 6y ago

Cases have not really plateaued. The large graph in the article is very misleading because it's a type of 'epi curve', the reporting is late on the data points making it always 'seem like' it's tilting down, even if it never actually is. With an epicure - you don't know until some time after the flattening that it has happened. Daily cases are here [1] It's inconsistent largely due to the cyclical nature of testing and reporting, but it's softly trending upwards. Note of course that it's not exploding, however. It'll be at least a couple of weeks before we see if it's plateauing. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

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Zenst 6y ago

Interesting that the population of Sweden is comparable to the population of London, England. Two ends of the population density factors. Yet comparing the number of deaths, they do seem most comparable. Not sure what to make from it though.

jinushaun 6y ago

Congrats to Sweden for "only" having 2,000 dead. Tell that to the over 56,000 dead Americans despite lockdown. Also, Sweden is under de facto lockdown even if they don't want to call it that.

erikig 6y ago
That said, it is important to note that Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world. Almost 40% higher than the US and at least 200-300% that of its neighbors. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-01-31..2020-04-10&country=CHN+DNK+FIN+DEU+NOR+SWE+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-mi... If the US had the same death rate, the total deaths would be closer to 80,000
- piva00 6y ago
  Population size is only an upper bound limit for disease spread, it doesn't tell anything else so using per capita inference to extrapolate is pretty flawed.