3 ms·

> Blanket lockdown has to end. What's different now vs before the lockdown started regarding flattening the curve? R0 is a little under 1 right now, but what w

by jupp0r 7y ago

> Blanket lockdown has to end. What's different now vs before the lockdown started regarding flattening the curve? R0 is a little under 1 right now, but what will it be when most things reopen? The goal of the lockdown is to keep R0 under 1 until we have measures in place to permanently mitigate the spread [1]. This means lots of testing and contact tracing, which is not even possible right now with case numbers being as big as they are. Reopening right now would just get us back to #flattenthecurve in a matter of 4 weeks. > There is no risk posed to the majority of the population from covid-19 There is risk to everybody, it's just lower for some. There's enough evidence of permanent damage inflicted on organs and other gnarly details that I (34M) will be absolutely careful not to get this disease. [2] [1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California... [2] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/more-bad-news-on-the-long-term-effects-of-the-coronavirus.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/more-bad-news-on-the...

usaar333 7y ago
Multiple counties have already confirmed they are contact tracing every case. The Bay Area has a lower per capita daily case rate than Germany who is opening schools. This should be manageable.
- jupp0r 7y ago
  Anecdotally, it’s still hard to get tested, even if people have symptoms. Happened to two friends of mine in the last 2 weeks.
mlyle 7y ago
Now we should be slightly reopening and targeting an Rt near 1, and driving towards population-based immunity. We had looser controls from mid-March to the beginning of April. They were evidently effective. Why do we need to stay in a regime of stricter controls-- mayhaps we can loosen a little from ehre and see what happens? Plenty of jurisdictions have less restrictive orders than the SF Bay Area, and are showing declining case counts.

by jupp0r 7y ago

usaar333 7y ago

Multiple counties have already confirmed they are contact tracing every case. The Bay Area has a lower per capita daily case rate than Germany who is opening schools. This should be manageable.

jupp0r 7y ago
Anecdotally, it’s still hard to get tested, even if people have symptoms. Happened to two friends of mine in the last 2 weeks.

mlyle 7y ago

Now we should be slightly reopening and targeting an Rt near 1, and driving towards population-based immunity. We had looser controls from mid-March to the beginning of April. They were evidently effective. Why do we need to stay in a regime of stricter controls-- mayhaps we can loosen a little from ehre and see what happens? Plenty of jurisdictions have less restrictive orders than the SF Bay Area, and are showing declining case counts.