4 ms·
But do the best estimates? As far as I can tell estimates vary a lot, but an R0 of 6 would be a significant outlier. But the current R value in the UK under th
by chimprich 6y ago
But do the best estimates? As far as I can tell estimates vary a lot, but an R0 of 6 would be a significant outlier.
But the current R value in the UK under the lockdown is estimated to be somewhere between 0.5 and 1. A contact-tracing app doesn't need to be perfect; any reduction in R would allow for either a swifter reduction in cases or a liberalisation of lockdown measures.
- user5994461 6y agoThe virus is still spreading in every location in spite of the lockdowns. Don't believe R is below 1 even with the lockdown. The virus is extremely infectious. Random sampling in NYC was hinting there were 1-2 millions of people infected and that's not the only city like that.
- chimprich 6y ago> The virus is still spreading in every location in spite of the lockdowns. Don't believe R is below 1 even with the lockdown. The virus still spreads as long as R is over 0; you still get new infections if there's any spread. However, an R of 1 is the boundary for exponential spread. If infections are not spreading exponentially it has to be below 1 by definition (as I understand it). In the UK death rates and hospital admissions have been falling for some time, indicating R is currently well below 1. Neil Ferguson, one of the UK's top infectious disease modellers estimated the current R value at between 0.6 and 0.7 a couple of days ago: https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/ https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-resp... .