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> The only way we know that shelter in place orders worked is if they feel like an overreaction after this is all over with. That's the only way to know? You t
by CPLX 7y ago
> The only way we know that shelter in place orders worked is if they feel like an overreaction after this is all over with.
That's the only way to know? You think it's reasonable to take away the civil liberties of seven million people indefinitely without at least trying to come up with a better performance metric than that?
You have literally no interest in setting up any kind of plan to assess how the policy is working?
- primeradical 7y agoThe only people losing civil liberties are the people that die after contracting the virus because we failed to social distance for the necessary amount of time. The "performance metric" you're looking for is the number of tests we conduct. Unless we're testing hundreds of thousands every day, we have no choice but to continue to shelter in place or stay at home. We are not even close to the amount of testing we need to know who does and doesn't have the virus.
- CPLX 7y agoOK I'll take your bait. What if we have enough tests, then what's the rule?
- primeradical 7y agoWhen you have enough tests, you know who has the virus and who doesn't. All those infected (and all the people they've contacted) can quarantine or seek the care they need, and those who aren't infected can all go get haircuts.
- CPLX 7y agoSo the shelter in place order should be in effect until we have conducted approximately seven million tests, after which we will institute a voluntary program where people who test positive are asked to quarantine and seek care?
- arblify 7y agoI think you're right, we do need a plan, but we need trained epidemiologists and other public health figures to define that plan. Many features of disease spread are counterintuitive and we need people with training to help us, the public, understand the problem and reasonable solutions. When people like Michael Osterholm tell me that it is possible one or two million people will die in the United States, I believe him and I'm willing to go along with the plan. That said, I would like to see more clear definition of where the risk lies, how we can take small chances that have a low chance of going catastrophically wrong, and how we can responsibly try to revert to some kind of normality.
- CPLX 7y agoI mean, it's not like this crisis started an hour ago. What's their plan? Like can someone write it down and post in on a government website? We're all commenting on what appears to be an official government press release that is announcing an entire month of some of the most serious restrictions on the public ever put in place, that does not appear to even try to take any kind of quantitative approach to explaining why that policy was put in to place, and how its effectiveness is being assessed. Broad, destructive public policy not tied to success metrics is fucking insane and I think the strong negative reactions to it are completely warranted.
- arblify 7y agoOnce you commit to some success metric, you're going to be stuck with it even it proves to be a bad metric. Let's say we all agree the "2 weeks with decreasing number of deaths" is a good target. Then we go back to work, and we discover that going back triggers a rapid spread and kills a bunch of people and starts to overwhelm hospitals. Now we need a new metric. This is a novel scientific problem. Caution and study are warranted. People's lives are at stake.
- CPLX 7y agoPeople's lives are always at stake. That's how public policy works. Like 100% of the time. Try painting lines on the highway or administering a school lunch program without putting people's lives at stake. The only thing novel here is completely abandoning the concept of public policy goals. There's nothing scientific about setting your public policy without any metrics at all. This is kind of the opposite of a scientific approach.