4 ms·

Shutting down the economy cost lives too. It may even cost more lives than the virus.

azinman2 6y ago
If we end up with a world-wide fatality of 1% (relatively conservative), how would shutting down the economy even approach this?
- scrimps 6y ago
  The Great Recession led to 236,000 excess cancer deaths[1]. If the great lockdown is as bad or worse then the excess cancer deaths could exceed the deaths from the disease. Over 26 million people in America have lost their jobs because of this which puts the unemployment rate over 20%[2].A 2017 study showed that a 1% increase in the unemployment rate increases the opioid death rate by 3.6%[3]. Suicides are also likely to increase. For every one point increase in the unemployment rate there is a .78 point increase in the suicide rate[4]. There are also hundreds of millions around the world who are on the edge of subsistence. Millions have escaped poverty due to economic progress will now be thrown back into it. The UN has warned that "hundreds of thousands" of additional children will die due to the economic downturn and around 50 million children could fall into extreme poverty[5]. [1] https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cancer-deaths-have-spiked-during-the-great-recession/ https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cancer-deaths-have... [2] https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total-job-losses-april-23-2020-benefits-claims/ https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-... [3] https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/opioid-deaths-rise-with-unemployment-report-says https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/opioid-death... [4] https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/acquainted-the-night/202003/will-covid-19-make-the-suicide-crisis-worse https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/acquainted-the-night... [5] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-childr...

If we end up with a world-wide fatality of 1% (relatively conservative), how would shutting down the economy even approach this?

scrimps 6y ago
The Great Recession led to 236,000 excess cancer deaths[1]. If the great lockdown is as bad or worse then the excess cancer deaths could exceed the deaths from the disease. Over 26 million people in America have lost their jobs because of this which puts the unemployment rate over 20%[2].A 2017 study showed that a 1% increase in the unemployment rate increases the opioid death rate by 3.6%[3]. Suicides are also likely to increase. For every one point increase in the unemployment rate there is a .78 point increase in the suicide rate[4]. There are also hundreds of millions around the world who are on the edge of subsistence. Millions have escaped poverty due to economic progress will now be thrown back into it. The UN has warned that "hundreds of thousands" of additional children will die due to the economic downturn and around 50 million children could fall into extreme poverty[5]. [1] https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cancer-deaths-have-spiked-during-the-great-recession/ https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cancer-deaths-have... [2] https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total-job-losses-april-23-2020-benefits-claims/ https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-... [3] https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/opioid-deaths-rise-with-unemployment-report-says https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/opioid-death... [4] https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/acquainted-the-night/202003/will-covid-19-make-the-suicide-crisis-worse https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/acquainted-the-night... [5] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-childr...