3 ms·
While I don't dispute the overall conclusion that Seattle handled things better, it's important to remember that infection is not a simple linear process. 3x th
by notacoward 7y ago
While I don't dispute the overall conclusion that Seattle handled things better, it's important to remember that infection is not a simple linear process. 3x the passengers does not necessarily mean 3x the cases. It means ~3x the chance of superspreader events directly from passengers, plus a higher chance of such events happening indirectly, and those events tend to be multiplicative rather than additive. On the other hand, it increases the chance that some people will be exposed via multiple paths but counted at most once. So 20x the cases seems a bit high, but 3x would be remarkably low.