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Ok, I took a look and it doesn't look good ... Compare Sweden to the list of its Nordic neighbors: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=Fi

by tsbinz 6y ago

Ok, I took a look and it doesn't look good ... Compare Sweden to the list of its Nordic neighbors: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=Finland&location=Sweden&location=Norway https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=F... Or, for a more direct comparison: https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&format=jpeg&auto=webp https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&fo... (from https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handle...) - Sweden's population is 2x that of Norway so keep that in mind when comparing, but the difference is really apparent.

arcticbull 6y ago
I don't disagree that they're not doing as well in terms of absolute numbers of cases as their neighboring countries in absolute lock-down. However, that's also intentional: they believe they won't be affected by a second wave of cases, whereas their neighbors will, so any delta in death count is simply a deferral. Similarly, they're seeing way less flu deaths and way less car accidents nearby. To the extent their new case burden remains flat and their medical system capable of treating cases as they arise (which they seem to be) then they are meeting their objectives. Their goal was never "pretend its not happening and hope it goes away" -- and it certainly was never to have fewer cases than neighboring countries -- so it seems a strange way to compare them. Their goal isn't zero new cases, either. With that said, a flat case count is certainly positive and totally compatible with their goals, which makes it IMO a fair axis of comparison.
- tsbinz 6y ago
  I disagree that a flat case count is positive. That strategy is essentially a bet on others failing to contain the virus. If you assume 90% of infections go undetected, you're looking at 2+ years until you reach 60% of immune people (10M Swedes, ~4300 new cases per week), so the time frame is probably dictated by the availability of a vaccine which - I hope - should be available sooner. If other countries do succeed in containing the virus, that means travel in and out of Sweden will have to be restricted in that time frame, and death rates will have been higher (and not just a deferral effect). Since some countries apparently have been succeeding in containing the virus, I don't think that is a good bet to make.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    > Since some countries apparently have been succeeding in containing the virus, I don't think that is a good bet to make. Some islands. Those, naturally, have well-defined borders due to their being surrounded by water. I'm not sure any non-island nation has had any luck.

by tsbinz 6y ago

arcticbull 6y ago

I don't disagree that they're not doing as well in terms of absolute numbers of cases as their neighboring countries in absolute lock-down. However, that's also intentional: they believe they won't be affected by a second wave of cases, whereas their neighbors will, so any delta in death count is simply a deferral. Similarly, they're seeing way less flu deaths and way less car accidents nearby. To the extent their new case burden remains flat and their medical system capable of treating cases as they arise (which they seem to be) then they are meeting their objectives. Their goal was never "pretend its not happening and hope it goes away" -- and it certainly was never to have fewer cases than neighboring countries -- so it seems a strange way to compare them. Their goal isn't zero new cases, either. With that said, a flat case count is certainly positive and totally compatible with their goals, which makes it IMO a fair axis of comparison.

tsbinz 6y ago
I disagree that a flat case count is positive. That strategy is essentially a bet on others failing to contain the virus. If you assume 90% of infections go undetected, you're looking at 2+ years until you reach 60% of immune people (10M Swedes, ~4300 new cases per week), so the time frame is probably dictated by the availability of a vaccine which - I hope - should be available sooner. If other countries do succeed in containing the virus, that means travel in and out of Sweden will have to be restricted in that time frame, and death rates will have been higher (and not just a deferral effect). Since some countries apparently have been succeeding in containing the virus, I don't think that is a good bet to make.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  > Since some countries apparently have been succeeding in containing the virus, I don't think that is a good bet to make. Some islands. Those, naturally, have well-defined borders due to their being surrounded by water. I'm not sure any non-island nation has had any luck.