4 ms·
How did you calculate the "between 1/1000 and 1/25" death rate for young and healthy people? Are you talking about infection fatality rate or death rate of peop
by ageitgey 6y ago
How did you calculate the "between 1/1000 and 1/25" death rate for young and healthy people? Are you talking about infection fatality rate or death rate of people being treated in hospital?
According to the UK ONS [1] for the week ending April 10, there had been 74 COVID deaths of people aged 44 and younger and 6,139 deaths of people aged 45 and older in the UK. So for that period, people under 45 account for ~1.1% of all COVID deaths despite making up 56% of the total population.
If you assume an overall infection fatality rate of about 0.5% (which seems like a pretty good guess from the recent antibody tests in NYC and other studies), 1% of half a percent is a pretty small number. And that's not even factoring in that a lot of the under 44 deaths probably involve co-morbidities and aren't otherwise healthy people.
This is back-of-the-napkin math and the IFR is inter-related with the population demographics, so I could be wrong. But it seemed to me like the death rate for people under 45 is quite low.
[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...