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Living in Switzerland and having friends in the surrounding countries, it has been kind of amazing to see how well the comparatively soft touch of the Swiss gov

Living in Switzerland and having friends in the surrounding countries, it has been kind of amazing to see how well the comparatively soft touch of the Swiss government has worked. We can still go out, hang out in groups <5 etc., but people are simply being reasonable. I keep waiting for the uptick in cases since they announced their plan for reopening though. I'm unconvinced we'll be through it so smoothly.

jariel 6y ago
"but people are simply being reasonable." The Swedes have taken this line as well, saying they 'trust' their citizens. I think it's not very rational, and also borderline chauvinist for people to say this. First - what evidence does anyone have that Swiss/Swedes or anyone for that matter are consistently behaving in one way or another that is more 'responsible' or 'sensible' than others? I don't see any evidence. A nationalist self-image of responsibility doesn't count as Science, and neither does a few images of fools on a Florida beach as it's all rather anecdotal. The other issue is that policy is material, not just 'responsibility' - for example - we know from Wuhan that restaurants and other places are a vector for transmission. So it doesn't matter if certain groups are 'behaving responsibly' so much - if they are going to restaurants, hotels, tanning salons etc. - even that otherwise 'responsible behaviour' inside the scope of 'following the rules' that is actually causing transmission. Given all of the variables we have to look at, the last place I think we can infer variation is with regards to who is 'being reasonable' by some arbitrary definition. That said - it would be really good to look at different nations varying policies and see how it works. It could be that <5 people is 'enough' to keep the R1 below 1, though there are obviously other factors. Maybe the Swiss have found the 'sweet spot'? In Canada, the problem was stopped, but there's already a continued second wave in long-term care homes, it's possible those are structured differently in Canada than other countries.
- tsbinz 6y ago
  Putting Switzerland and Sweden in the same bucket here isn't fair, IMO. In Switzerland, most things were closed down like in our neighbor countries (some things are reopening now, but still very limited). A difference was that while other countries said no groups of >2 people, in Switzerland the rule was no groups of >5 people, so in that sense it was more lax, but it's far more strict than Sweden's policy.
- VBprogrammer 6y ago
  I'm not sure what people are reacting negatively to in your post but I thought this was a really well stated point: "A nationalist self-image of responsibility doesn't count as Science"
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    What counts as science is results, and Sweden is flattening the curve just as well as the UK and Canada, so the system is working, whatever it is. I mean, take a look: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=Denmark&location=Finland&location=Sweden&location=US&location=United+Kingdom https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=De... I'm not sure why people are having such a hard time accepting that what Sweden is doing is in fact working, in the face of a pretty clear graph. Just because it appears counter-intuitive or possibly not in line with their preexisting ideas of what should be done? There's still 5 US states without any form of lockdown (the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas), too, so you could say they're "following the Swedish model." Wyoming, Utah and Oklahoma are only under regional partial lockdowns, too. Of course they only account for about 5% of the population but it remains notable.
    - tsbinz 6y ago
      Ok, I took a look and it doesn't look good ... Compare Sweden to the list of its Nordic neighbors: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=Finland&location=Sweden&location=Norway https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=F... Or, for a more direct comparison: https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&format=jpeg&auto=webp https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&fo... (from https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handle...) - Sweden's population is 2x that of Norway so keep that in mind when comparing, but the difference is really apparent.
      - arcticbull 6y ago
        I don't disagree that they're not doing as well in terms of absolute numbers of cases as their neighboring countries in absolute lock-down. However, that's also intentional: they believe they won't be affected by a second wave of cases, whereas their neighbors will, so any delta in death count is simply a deferral. Similarly, they're seeing way less flu deaths and way less car accidents nearby. To the extent their new case burden remains flat and their medical system capable of treating cases as they arise (which they seem to be) then they are meeting their objectives. Their goal was never "pretend its not happening and hope it goes away" -- and it certainly was never to have fewer cases than neighboring countries -- so it seems a strange way to compare them. Their goal isn't zero new cases, either. With that said, a flat case count is certainly positive and totally compatible with their goals, which makes it IMO a fair axis of comparison.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

jariel 6y ago

"but people are simply being reasonable." The Swedes have taken this line as well, saying they 'trust' their citizens. I think it's not very rational, and also borderline chauvinist for people to say this. First - what evidence does anyone have that Swiss/Swedes or anyone for that matter are consistently behaving in one way or another that is more 'responsible' or 'sensible' than others? I don't see any evidence. A nationalist self-image of responsibility doesn't count as Science, and neither does a few images of fools on a Florida beach as it's all rather anecdotal. The other issue is that policy is material, not just 'responsibility' - for example - we know from Wuhan that restaurants and other places are a vector for transmission. So it doesn't matter if certain groups are 'behaving responsibly' so much - if they are going to restaurants, hotels, tanning salons etc. - even that otherwise 'responsible behaviour' inside the scope of 'following the rules' that is actually causing transmission. Given all of the variables we have to look at, the last place I think we can infer variation is with regards to who is 'being reasonable' by some arbitrary definition. That said - it would be really good to look at different nations varying policies and see how it works. It could be that <5 people is 'enough' to keep the R1 below 1, though there are obviously other factors. Maybe the Swiss have found the 'sweet spot'? In Canada, the problem was stopped, but there's already a continued second wave in long-term care homes, it's possible those are structured differently in Canada than other countries.

tsbinz 6y ago
Putting Switzerland and Sweden in the same bucket here isn't fair, IMO. In Switzerland, most things were closed down like in our neighbor countries (some things are reopening now, but still very limited). A difference was that while other countries said no groups of >2 people, in Switzerland the rule was no groups of >5 people, so in that sense it was more lax, but it's far more strict than Sweden's policy.
VBprogrammer 6y ago
I'm not sure what people are reacting negatively to in your post but I thought this was a really well stated point: "A nationalist self-image of responsibility doesn't count as Science"
- arcticbull 6y ago
  What counts as science is results, and Sweden is flattening the curve just as well as the UK and Canada, so the system is working, whatever it is. I mean, take a look: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=Denmark&location=Finland&location=Sweden&location=US&location=United+Kingdom https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=De... I'm not sure why people are having such a hard time accepting that what Sweden is doing is in fact working, in the face of a pretty clear graph. Just because it appears counter-intuitive or possibly not in line with their preexisting ideas of what should be done? There's still 5 US states without any form of lockdown (the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas), too, so you could say they're "following the Swedish model." Wyoming, Utah and Oklahoma are only under regional partial lockdowns, too. Of course they only account for about 5% of the population but it remains notable.
  - tsbinz 6y ago
    Ok, I took a look and it doesn't look good ... Compare Sweden to the list of its Nordic neighbors: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=Finland&location=Sweden&location=Norway https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=F... Or, for a more direct comparison: https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&format=jpeg&auto=webp https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&fo... (from https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handle...) - Sweden's population is 2x that of Norway so keep that in mind when comparing, but the difference is really apparent.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      I don't disagree that they're not doing as well in terms of absolute numbers of cases as their neighboring countries in absolute lock-down. However, that's also intentional: they believe they won't be affected by a second wave of cases, whereas their neighbors will, so any delta in death count is simply a deferral. Similarly, they're seeing way less flu deaths and way less car accidents nearby. To the extent their new case burden remains flat and their medical system capable of treating cases as they arise (which they seem to be) then they are meeting their objectives. Their goal was never "pretend its not happening and hope it goes away" -- and it certainly was never to have fewer cases than neighboring countries -- so it seems a strange way to compare them. Their goal isn't zero new cases, either. With that said, a flat case count is certainly positive and totally compatible with their goals, which makes it IMO a fair axis of comparison.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]