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Why wont you talk about the predicted numbers? Which professional pre-peak US prediction did you find suprisingly accurate? Clearly it's not this one.
by jakeogh 6y ago
Why wont you talk about the predicted numbers? Which professional pre-peak US prediction did you find suprisingly accurate? Clearly it's not this one.
- Retric 6y agoSuppression can limit spread to an arbitrarily small number depending on when it’s implemented. They correctly stated it’s capable of stopping exponential growth and that each mitigation or suppression strategy’s effectiveness depends on when it’s implemented. So, if we started a week earlier the daily death toll would be ~1/10th as large. That prediction exactly matches observed outcomes. Do you expect them to predict our public policy and it’s date of implication?
- jakeogh 6y agoThere are no studies that I am aware of that predicted the exceptional outcome the US has had as far as total deaths. If there are, please link to them. The study that you think is suprisingly accurate, has a minimum number of 1.1M dead if we implemented "case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly" in the US, which is a reasonable approximation of what we did.