> I’m disagreeing that at this moment - and with statistics like excess mortality in NYC, there is very good reason to believe that upward and downward pressure

> I’m disagreeing that at this moment - and with statistics like excess mortality in NYC, there is very good reason to believe that upward and downward pressure are not equally likely. I would kinda agree, but for different reasons. I’ve seen the inner workings over several government agencies during this crisis, including a few police departments. What has been obvious to me is that there is a very significant difference from place to place in how death and infection statistics are recorded. My observation has been that people who have an obvious political incentive to record lower numbers usually find a way to do it, and vice versa for people who have an obvious political incentive to record higher numbers. I would agree because across the world, there seems to be greater political incentive to have lower numbers. Everything you’re speculating about is plausible, and may turn out to be mostly correct. But there is no reasonable basis for the certainty you claim to have. Especially in regards to claims such as there being no potential for factors other than Covid deaths to have a statistically significant influence on overall mortality rates. That’s just your opinion, and it’s a reasonable on to have, but it’s definitely not “almost certainly” true.