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Go for it on fourth down? Ask Coach Watson
- bartonfink 16y agoI've often wondered what real impact it would have if an American football team decided, as a rule, to never punt and always go for it on 4th down. Current strategy highly favors punting, even in circumstances when that seems obviously non-optimal, and I'd like to know whether we can calculate specific scenarios for which it's better to punt or go for it. Right now the whole thing seems very fuzzy, and I think the biggest driver is a coaching staff's fear of failing by doing something different. I've heard of people running simulations on Madden, for example, but I'm not sure if that offers the sort of hooks into the AI that it would take to alter strategy to that degree.
- kerben 16y agoMost coaches would rather play it safe, especially where the risk of turning over the ball with favorable field position outweighs the benefit of another 4 downs...but what if the 4th down decision to punt or to 'go for it' could be crowdsourced? Meaning fans could weigh in with their decision from the stadium or from home - maybe this would help tip the scales in those questionable scenarios...