You’re saying almost certainly, but you’re demonstrably making a lot of assumptions. For instance studies of the effect recessions have on mortality rates vary

You’re saying almost certainly, but you’re demonstrably making a lot of assumptions. For instance studies of the effect recessions have on mortality rates vary wildly, from having a positive effect (like the Great Depression), to having a hugely negative effect (Brazil 2012-2016). There’s other obvious confounding factors in this approach too. What is the impact on mortality rate in moving primary care to Tele-conferencing? The pandemic had prioritized Covid care, and stretched medical resources. What impact has that had on the mortality rate of non-Covid conditions? The answers to those questions are not obvious, and have not been rigorously studied. Even if you could answer them, that approach would imply redefining the Covid-19 death toll from being “deaths caused by Covid-19” to “deaths which may not have otherwise happened, during that particular period, if not for Covid-19”.