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If you look at deaths from Sweden and Belgium the excess mortality matches very well the deaths they attribute to COVID-19[0]. Both Sweden and Belgium count COV

If you look at deaths from Sweden and Belgium the excess mortality matches very well the deaths they attribute to COVID-19[0]. Both Sweden and Belgium count COVID-19 deaths in community outside hospitals. It would seem they over-count by some 5%. The example of these two countries suggests that the excess mortality can be basically fully attributed to COVID-19 [1]. [0]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... [1]: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

ska 6y ago
Right, the increase in excess mortality is almost certainly covid-19 related, and the potential for overcount is relatively small (and will probably be accounted for reasonably). By comparison not counting these will result in a large undercount, a much more significant effect.
- AmericanChopper 6y ago
  You’re saying almost certainly, but you’re demonstrably making a lot of assumptions. For instance studies of the effect recessions have on mortality rates vary wildly, from having a positive effect (like the Great Depression), to having a hugely negative effect (Brazil 2012-2016). There’s other obvious confounding factors in this approach too. What is the impact on mortality rate in moving primary care to Tele-conferencing? The pandemic had prioritized Covid care, and stretched medical resources. What impact has that had on the mortality rate of non-Covid conditions? The answers to those questions are not obvious, and have not been rigorously studied. Even if you could answer them, that approach would imply redefining the Covid-19 death toll from being “deaths caused by Covid-19” to “deaths which may not have otherwise happened, during that particular period, if not for Covid-19”.
  - ska 6y ago
    On the time scale we are liking at so far, almost none of those terms contribute . I agree that over time it gets muddier , but right now in places like NYC it’s pretty clear .

ska 6y ago

Right, the increase in excess mortality is almost certainly covid-19 related, and the potential for overcount is relatively small (and will probably be accounted for reasonably). By comparison not counting these will result in a large undercount, a much more significant effect.

AmericanChopper 6y ago
You’re saying almost certainly, but you’re demonstrably making a lot of assumptions. For instance studies of the effect recessions have on mortality rates vary wildly, from having a positive effect (like the Great Depression), to having a hugely negative effect (Brazil 2012-2016). There’s other obvious confounding factors in this approach too. What is the impact on mortality rate in moving primary care to Tele-conferencing? The pandemic had prioritized Covid care, and stretched medical resources. What impact has that had on the mortality rate of non-Covid conditions? The answers to those questions are not obvious, and have not been rigorously studied. Even if you could answer them, that approach would imply redefining the Covid-19 death toll from being “deaths caused by Covid-19” to “deaths which may not have otherwise happened, during that particular period, if not for Covid-19”.
- ska 6y ago
  On the time scale we are liking at so far, almost none of those terms contribute . I agree that over time it gets muddier , but right now in places like NYC it’s pretty clear .