4 ms·

> How many flights does NYC receive per day? Looking at 2019 passenger statistics for the big 3: JFK[1] = 62.6 MM LGA[2] = 31.1 MM EWR[3] = 46.3 MM To

> How many flights does NYC receive per day? Looking at 2019 passenger statistics for the big 3: JFK[1] = 62.6 MM LGA[2] = 31.1 MM EWR[3] = 46.3 MM Total = 140.0 MM > How many does Seattle receive? Equivalent 2019 metric for SEA[4] puts it at 51.8 MM. So as a ballpark measure, greater NYC process 3x more than SEA. The CDC[5] reports ~13k cases in WA, whereas NY alone is at ~267k cases; add another ~102k for nearby NJ. Extending the benefit of the doubt, that's ~20x positive incident for 3x flight activity. Even if we pretend that WA is under-reporting by a factor of 2, and half of NY cases are false positive, the argument still falls flat on its face...keep in mind, NJ isn't even being accounted for in this thought experiment. [1] https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/statistics/statistics-general-info/monthly-2019/JFK_DEC_2019.pdf https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/statistics/stati... [2] https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/statistics/statistics-general-info/monthly-2019/LGA_DEC_2019.pdf https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/statistics/stati... [3] https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/statistics/statistics-general-info/monthly-2019/EWR_DEC_2019.pdf https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/statistics/stati... [4] https://www.portseattle.org/page/airport-statistics https://www.portseattle.org/page/airport-statistics [5] https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html

formercoder 7y ago
It’s not the sole metric you’d need to regress against. Once those folks get off the plane they are in much closer contact with the rest of the population.
- metaphor 7y ago
  Now extend Tokyo an ounce of consideration in this context.
notacoward 7y ago
While I don't dispute the overall conclusion that Seattle handled things better, it's important to remember that infection is not a simple linear process. 3x the passengers does not necessarily mean 3x the cases. It means ~3x the chance of superspreader events directly from passengers, plus a higher chance of such events happening indirectly, and those events tend to be multiplicative rather than additive. On the other hand, it increases the chance that some people will be exposed via multiple paths but counted at most once. So 20x the cases seems a bit high, but 3x would be remarkably low.

formercoder 7y ago

It’s not the sole metric you’d need to regress against. Once those folks get off the plane they are in much closer contact with the rest of the population.

metaphor 7y ago
Now extend Tokyo an ounce of consideration in this context.

notacoward 7y ago

While I don't dispute the overall conclusion that Seattle handled things better, it's important to remember that infection is not a simple linear process. 3x the passengers does not necessarily mean 3x the cases. It means ~3x the chance of superspreader events directly from passengers, plus a higher chance of such events happening indirectly, and those events tend to be multiplicative rather than additive. On the other hand, it increases the chance that some people will be exposed via multiple paths but counted at most once. So 20x the cases seems a bit high, but 3x would be remarkably low.