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It's actually suspected that the whole epidemic in Europe originated from the first confirmed infection in Germany. A woman from Shanghai who had a business tr

It's actually suspected that the whole epidemic in Europe originated from the first confirmed infection in Germany. A woman from Shanghai who had a business trip with her car manufacturer. That same manufacturer happens to have a factory in northern Italy. Some Italian scientists did an RNA analysis on samples from infected people from Italy, and confirmed they descended from the first German case. Basically, if this hypothesis is true then German quarantine and/or exposure tracking failed. Had they played it safe and properly quarantined the entire staff of the office building , Europe's coronavirus pandemic might have gone entirely differently.

lukastr0 6y ago
> It's actually suspected that the whole epidemic in Europe originated from the first confirmed infection in Germany. According to virologist Dr. Drosten, this idea has been mostly disproven. Some scientists believed it initially but after more debate, the consensus has emerged that both Italy and Germany got their virus directly from Wuhan or Shanghai. Source (in German language): https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript174.pdf https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript174.pdf page 79
- christkv 6y ago
  The Milan area hosts more than 100000 Chinese foreign workers. Madrid nearly 200000. How many came back from vacation in December and January taking the virus with them? I think this was seeded earlier than we think.
jaynetics 6y ago
Nextstrain has a nice graphical overview of virus pathways. It might well be that containment failed, and that a single person caused hundreds or thousands of the deaths in Italy, much like patient 31 in South Korea. On the other hand, without those extra deaths, authorities would simply have waited a bit longer with a lockdown, people would have acted as usual for longer, and the end result might just have been very similar with a delay of a few weeks.

lukastr0 6y ago

> It's actually suspected that the whole epidemic in Europe originated from the first confirmed infection in Germany. According to virologist Dr. Drosten, this idea has been mostly disproven. Some scientists believed it initially but after more debate, the consensus has emerged that both Italy and Germany got their virus directly from Wuhan or Shanghai. Source (in German language): https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript174.pdf https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript174.pdf page 79

christkv 6y ago
The Milan area hosts more than 100000 Chinese foreign workers. Madrid nearly 200000. How many came back from vacation in December and January taking the virus with them? I think this was seeded earlier than we think.

jaynetics 6y ago

Nextstrain has a nice graphical overview of virus pathways. It might well be that containment failed, and that a single person caused hundreds or thousands of the deaths in Italy, much like patient 31 in South Korea. On the other hand, without those extra deaths, authorities would simply have waited a bit longer with a lockdown, people would have acted as usual for longer, and the end result might just have been very similar with a delay of a few weeks.