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Correct. Other people's idiotic choices have deadly implications for everyone else. That's why we can't just let people ignore this problem. They don't just hur

Correct. Other people's idiotic choices have deadly implications for everyone else. That's why we can't just let people ignore this problem. They don't just hurt themselves.

mlyle 6y ago
At the same time, we can't just let zeal/fear drive us into making the short-term safest choices that may not be safest in the long run. I do think we're overshooting the other way.
- carapace 6y ago
  How would you know? I'm not being snarky, I'm asking, what are the concrete metrics that would let us gauge our optimal reaction?
  - mlyle 6y ago
    - Infection fatality rate -- this looks to be 1/5th or lower than what we thought getting into this. - Infection hospitalization rate -- similar. - Probability of getting a vaccine in a moderately quick timeframe -- I'd call this one 50/50. Hard to bet on. - How long it takes case counts to decay to a point where a contact tracing regime works -- This really depends. It looks like to me that in the US jurisdictions with the best controls, Rt =~ 0.6. This will take a -long- time to decay to the 1 case per million threshold where contact tracing, etc works; 6 months or more. Some models put the decay much quicker, at like a month from now, but I cannot understand why. - Efficacy of a herd immunity strategy / serology information from various jurisdictions -- looking hopeful, but imperfect information. Sweden is getting there... - Critical care utilization. In the SF Bay Area, we're below seasonal norms and COVID-19 cases in ICU have been (very slowly) decaying for the past 3 weeks. - Seasonal effects. We don't really know, but it looks like there is probably a small seasonal swing to Rt. Seasonal effects justify more dramatic action either direction (containment or relaxation). Containment efforts will be made more effective during summer, but it's also an ideal time to experiment with loosening controls while seasonal factors are on our side.
    - carapace 6y ago
      Cheers!

Correct. Other people's idiotic choices have deadly implications for everyone else. That's why we can't just let people ignore this problem. They don't just hurt themselves.

mlyle 6y ago

At the same time, we can't just let zeal/fear drive us into making the short-term safest choices that may not be safest in the long run. I do think we're overshooting the other way.

carapace 6y ago
How would you know? I'm not being snarky, I'm asking, what are the concrete metrics that would let us gauge our optimal reaction?
- mlyle 6y ago
  - Infection fatality rate -- this looks to be 1/5th or lower than what we thought getting into this. - Infection hospitalization rate -- similar. - Probability of getting a vaccine in a moderately quick timeframe -- I'd call this one 50/50. Hard to bet on. - How long it takes case counts to decay to a point where a contact tracing regime works -- This really depends. It looks like to me that in the US jurisdictions with the best controls, Rt =~ 0.6. This will take a -long- time to decay to the 1 case per million threshold where contact tracing, etc works; 6 months or more. Some models put the decay much quicker, at like a month from now, but I cannot understand why. - Efficacy of a herd immunity strategy / serology information from various jurisdictions -- looking hopeful, but imperfect information. Sweden is getting there... - Critical care utilization. In the SF Bay Area, we're below seasonal norms and COVID-19 cases in ICU have been (very slowly) decaying for the past 3 weeks. - Seasonal effects. We don't really know, but it looks like there is probably a small seasonal swing to Rt. Seasonal effects justify more dramatic action either direction (containment or relaxation). Containment efforts will be made more effective during summer, but it's also an ideal time to experiment with loosening controls while seasonal factors are on our side.
  - carapace 6y ago
    Cheers!