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You're assuming that if all states had taken the same approach, they would have all taken the best approach. You're correct that one hypothetical outcome is th
by swimfar 6y ago
You're assuming that if all states had taken the same approach, they would have all taken the best approach. You're correct that one hypothetical outcome is that 5500-8800 more people died. However, another outcome is that the entire nation could have responded in a way similar to New York in which case there would have been many more deaths.
- untog 6y ago> You're assuming that if all states had taken the same approach, they would have all taken the best approach. I'm really not. It makes sense that different states should try different things, and I imagine that if all politicians listened to the scientists there would have been different answers proposed for different states.
- NotSammyHagar 6y agoThis isn't just playing around with abstract new things that we have no experience with in public health. The same situation is happening in Sweden's "experiment" as compared to other countries with similar health systems in Europe. Sweden is expected to have about 10,000 deaths and they should have about 2,000 deaths if their health system works about as well as Switzerland. See https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden. For reference Sweden has about 10 mil pop, Switzerland has 8.5 mil. Sweden is expected to kill about 8,000 people unnecessarily. We know this can happen because of experience with many previous epidemics.