3 ms·

at what point would you think that no contact tracing is necessary? Should you track people that are not at risk at all, just because some people are? What perc

at what point would you think that no contact tracing is necessary? Should you track people that are not at risk at all, just because some people are? What percent of those people should be at risk for this to make sense? these are the type of issues that the original post talks about, real numbers that allow you o see what exactly is being traded off for what how mild should a disease (in general) be for this to not be necessary? would you advocate contact tracing for the flu? Should we contact trace HIV?

chris_va 6y ago
If you get R<1, eventually the disease will die out (see SARS-1). Coronavirus get deletions, etc. A vaccine will likely be developed (we got lucky, at first glance, that SARS antigens are fairly stable). All these things take time. You don't "track" people with contact tracing, you ask positive cases who they came in contact with and ask those people to get tested. We could probably "eliminate" influenza with ubiquitous testing (at least for 99.99% of the human race). There just isn't an obvious entity to fund such an effort. There should be, but there isn't. Contact tracing is done for HIV.