4 ms·

I’d recommend not using “cases”, but rather deaths. Most countries don’t have the testing capacity. In fact, if you look at places like the USA testing capacity

I’d recommend not using “cases”, but rather deaths. Most countries don’t have the testing capacity. In fact, if you look at places like the USA testing capacity is effectively flat. Yet 20% of the tests are coming back positive... Italy on the other hand has seen a decrease in positive rate as they are increasing testing. That’s what happens as you’re nearing Or over a peak. All countries seem to have some method of testing / adding suspect cases of people who died. As such, that’s probably the most accurate (albeit lagging) method of comparison. https://github.com/lettergram/covid19-analysis https://github.com/lettergram/covid19-analysis

Tepix 7y ago
Good idea. May not work well with countries reporting wrong numbers- even of deaths- on purpose, like Brazil.
dede4metal 7y ago
Moreover in each country the definition of recovered is very different. The most strict is in Italy were you need two swabs both positives within 24h
- Tepix 7y ago
  You mean negative? That does't sound like the strictest to me. I have heard Prof. Drosten talk about tests further apart
  - dede4metal 7y ago
    Yeah negative sorry
chvid 7y ago
Deaths are also counted differently.
- dilap 7y ago
  Death attribution can vary; I think deaths themselves -- as in, how many people have died, from any cause -- should be fairly reliable and comparable. So for the clearest, most unbiased picture of COVID impact, calculate % increase over normal death rate by country, and then compare that. (I guess. Just spitballing.)
  - DarthGhandi 7y ago
    Deaths even within the US have wildly different criteria for being counted: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-count-toward-the-covid-19-death-toll-it-depends-on-the-state/2020/04/16/bca84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-c...
    - arwineap 7y ago
      The suggestion you are responding to is not suggesting counting covid deaths. It's suggesting we track all deaths/ Then we look at the increase in average deaths. Based on the trends we should be able to estimate how many additional (likely covid) deaths we have incurred during the crisis
      - spydum 7y ago
        The obvious problem there is the safer at home laws and lack of socializing would have an impact on your average deaths in the opposite direction. So comparing average deaths in the past to now are apples and oranges.
        dilap 7y ago
        Yes, the unadjusted number you get will be a lower-bound. You could then try to get closer to the real number by noticing, e.g., how much car crashes were reduced and adjusting for that.
  - cies 7y ago

Tepix 7y ago

Good idea. May not work well with countries reporting wrong numbers- even of deaths- on purpose, like Brazil.

dede4metal 7y ago

Moreover in each country the definition of recovered is very different. The most strict is in Italy were you need two swabs both positives within 24h

Tepix 7y ago
You mean negative? That does't sound like the strictest to me. I have heard Prof. Drosten talk about tests further apart
- dede4metal 7y ago
  Yeah negative sorry

chvid 7y ago

Deaths are also counted differently.

dilap 7y ago
Death attribution can vary; I think deaths themselves -- as in, how many people have died, from any cause -- should be fairly reliable and comparable. So for the clearest, most unbiased picture of COVID impact, calculate % increase over normal death rate by country, and then compare that. (I guess. Just spitballing.)
- DarthGhandi 7y ago
  Deaths even within the US have wildly different criteria for being counted: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-count-toward-the-covid-19-death-toll-it-depends-on-the-state/2020/04/16/bca84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-c...
  - arwineap 7y ago
    The suggestion you are responding to is not suggesting counting covid deaths. It's suggesting we track all deaths/ Then we look at the increase in average deaths. Based on the trends we should be able to estimate how many additional (likely covid) deaths we have incurred during the crisis
    - spydum 7y ago
      The obvious problem there is the safer at home laws and lack of socializing would have an impact on your average deaths in the opposite direction. So comparing average deaths in the past to now are apples and oranges.
      - dilap 7y ago
        Yes, the unadjusted number you get will be a lower-bound. You could then try to get closer to the real number by noticing, e.g., how much car crashes were reduced and adjusting for that.
- cies 7y ago