4 ms·

According to the CDC, the seasonal flu kills 12,000-79,000 Americans a year by the same standard as used for COVID-19. Much closer to the widely cited 0.1% IFR.

• Gwypaas 7y ago
  Seems high. Here is a systemic review of studies done on the 2009 influenza coming to a conclusion of an IFR of 1-10 deaths per 100 000 infections. "The consistent estimates of the infection fatality risk at around 1 to 10 deaths per 100,000 infections identified in our review" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/
  • arcticbull 7y ago
    CEBM concurs, the H1N1 CFR was between 0.1% and 5.1%, based on country and the fatality risk settled out at 0.02%. [1] Some more napkin math, the CDC estimates between 12,000 and 61,000 flu fatalities per year out of approximately 9,300,000 to 45,000,000 infections so pretty consistently a 0.1-0.15% IFR. [2] Not sure how to reconcile these. The worst year, 2017-2018, had 45M cases and 61K deaths. The dominant strain was H3N2 not H1N1. The vaccine wasn't particularly effective that year (38%). Not sure how else to account for the delta. [3, 4] [1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html [3] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm [4] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies....