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Do note that rapid decline in the day-to-day increase of case numbers is not necessarily indicative of rapid decline in transmission rate. Transmission rate cou
by _-___________-_ 7y ago
Do note that rapid decline in the day-to-day increase of case numbers is not necessarily indicative of rapid decline in transmission rate. Transmission rate could have declined gradually over the course of a week or more, and the rapid decline in day-to-day increase of case numbers could have just been detection catching up with existing infections.
- Retric 7y agoTheir daily testing was reasonably consistent over that time period. So, their is some wiggle room, but it’s at minimum a 80% drop over 2 weeks. Compared to the US where daily numbers are steady for weeks with the last two days having the greatest number of detected cases.
- rstuart4133 7y agoI've given up on the USA numbers. There is no way an underlying exponential process is going to deliver you a near constant 30K new infections for nearly 4 straight weeks. Something else is driving those numbers, and it ain't the actual number of new infections. For me the obvious candidate is they hits some testing limit.
- pashamur 7y agoYou shouldn't think of it as one underlying exponential process though. It could be many overlapping and time-delayed S-curve type graphs which are additively causing a constant rate of infections. Although it's also most certainly true that we're vastly undercounting the cases in most (if not all) areas.