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I have a hunch that once the severity of the pandemic eases, we may see an increase in car journeys for holidays, particularly for continental Europe. Why? Many

I have a hunch that once the severity of the pandemic eases, we may see an increase in car journeys for holidays, particularly for continental Europe. Why? Many people will remain cautious about travelling with strangers in closely packed airplane cabins or even train carriages. The alternative is to travel by car. But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car and so this may affect where people travel. Will densely packed cities lose out as holiday destinations? Governments want people to travel because tourism and hospitality employs thousands of people and brings substantial money into the economy for almost every country in the world. I'm sceptical the airline industry, which has thrived with low fares, particularly in Europe, will raise prices. I expect they will do everything to tempt passengers to return to the air with low fares. Will that be enough to tempt us back on board?

qubex 7y ago
That’s a good point, but I’m also starting to speculate whether, when the infection rates and (crucially) hospital occupation rates diminish, we will see some people deliberately seeking to get infected so as to gain immunity whilst the risks are low, specifically, when they can be reasonably certain that if they experience severe symptoms they’ll have a place in an ICU to receive intensive care. This might sound unsound (pardon the awkward phrasing) but it’s not necessarily irrational given the perceived advantages of immunity and the diminished perceived risks. It might not even be socially undesirable either, as a kind of “low burn” through the population, or at least it’s sturdier members, might be seen as building up that “herd immunity” which makes it difficult for the virus to reach the higher-risk individuals.
- tshanmu 7y ago
  What's with WHO statements that there is no evidence of immunity for covid19 infected?
  - redis_mlc 7y ago
    I haven't seen anything confirming that, either weakly or strongly. It's unlikely to be true, since most diseases don't behave that way, but we'll see. All we really know is that the current corona tests don't seem to be very accurate.
  - kaetemi 7y ago
    They don't want people to be confident, they don't want to take the risk that they skip vaccination.
    - jobigoud 7y ago
      If I understand correctly, no immunity would imply that there won't be a vaccine.
      - kaetemi 7y ago
        Well, they also flip-flopped between the wearing of masks in public communications, just to keep supplies available to medical staff...
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    They are correct: there is no evidence specifically of COVID immunity after infection. There's a very (very) high likelihood based on everything we know about humans and viruses (corona flavored or otherwise), but it's fair to expect a study confirming as much before making a global public health policy decision of that magnitude. This article references the WHO statement [1]. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/warns-coronavirus-immunity-passports-200425150532564.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/warns-coronavirus-imm...
  - qubex 7y ago
    As others have noted, “not confirmed” does not mean that we have to take all that we know about viruses and immunology and trash it (yet). In all likelihood in due course it shall be confirmed. There’s no reason to believe this virus is fundamentally different from any other.
  - JoshuaDavid 7y ago
    "There is no evidence [from rigorous peer-reviewed research] that X is true" and "there is evidence that X is not true" are not the same thing.
- meheleventyone 7y ago
  Seems like a pretty risky thing to do. Not only to yourself since you don’t know in advance if you’re going to have symptoms or not (risking permanent injury and death) but to your family and wider society. It would only take a few people doing this and not adequately self isolating for the weeks required to get better to start spreading the virus again quickly.
  - qubex 7y ago
    Don’t get me wrong, I’m most definitely not advocating it. But keep in mind there’s folks considering shooting up bleach because Podium Dementor mused about it ‘sarcastically’. People’s cognitive processes surprise, sometimes.
    - meheleventyone 7y ago
      Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if the next “superspreader” event after this first set of lockdowns is caused by someone who deliberately infected themselves.
irrational 7y ago
> The alternative is to travel by car. But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car We routinely drive 2000 miles round trip to visit family. People can tolerate lots of time in the car if they really want to go somewhere.
- kijin 7y ago
  1000 miles one way takes about 15 hours at highway speeds. It's not that different from a transcontinental flight plus the time it takes to travel to and from the airport, wait at the airport, etc. You're also free to bring as much luggage as your vehicle will allow, stop and rest at any time, or go sightseeing along the way. On top of that, the seats are more comfortable, and it might even be cheaper for a family of four. The only downside is that someone has to drive the car for all those hours. As soon as that problem is fixed, I don't see myself traveling by air at all unless I have to cross an ocean.
_iyig 7y ago
>I have a hunch that once the severity of the pandemic eases, we may see an increase in car journeys for holidays, particularly for continental Europe. >But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car and so this may affect where people travel. As an American, I would routinely drive 3+ hours to visit family in the same state, or 6+ hours across several states from my childhood home to university. Growing up in the Midwest, I got used to measuring distance in hours of highway travel time. I wouldn't make those trips every week or every month, but 5-6 times in a year would not have been unusual. I know many people who drove cross-country when moving from East to West Coast (a multi-day road trip), or vice-versa. Road trips in general are firmly rooted in the American experience, as captured in films such as 'National Lampoon's Vacation' or 'Little Miss Sunshine.' Perhaps post-pandemic Europe will see its own road trip renaissance, complete with motels, minivans, and roadside attractions?
- open-source-ux 7y ago
  "Road trips in general are firmly rooted in the American experience" Road trips in Europe don't quite capture people's imagination in the same way as the Great American road trip. I think it might have something to do with driving across borders - it's exciting but also possibly stressful having to drive in a different, unfamiliar country. Camping is already popular in some European countries. There are lots of camps with modern facilities so its popularity may grow even more.

qubex 7y ago

That’s a good point, but I’m also starting to speculate whether, when the infection rates and (crucially) hospital occupation rates diminish, we will see some people deliberately seeking to get infected so as to gain immunity whilst the risks are low, specifically, when they can be reasonably certain that if they experience severe symptoms they’ll have a place in an ICU to receive intensive care. This might sound unsound (pardon the awkward phrasing) but it’s not necessarily irrational given the perceived advantages of immunity and the diminished perceived risks. It might not even be socially undesirable either, as a kind of “low burn” through the population, or at least it’s sturdier members, might be seen as building up that “herd immunity” which makes it difficult for the virus to reach the higher-risk individuals.

tshanmu 7y ago
What's with WHO statements that there is no evidence of immunity for covid19 infected?
- redis_mlc 7y ago
  I haven't seen anything confirming that, either weakly or strongly. It's unlikely to be true, since most diseases don't behave that way, but we'll see. All we really know is that the current corona tests don't seem to be very accurate.
- kaetemi 7y ago
  They don't want people to be confident, they don't want to take the risk that they skip vaccination.
  - jobigoud 7y ago
    If I understand correctly, no immunity would imply that there won't be a vaccine.
    - kaetemi 7y ago
      Well, they also flip-flopped between the wearing of masks in public communications, just to keep supplies available to medical staff...
- arcticbull 7y ago
  They are correct: there is no evidence specifically of COVID immunity after infection. There's a very (very) high likelihood based on everything we know about humans and viruses (corona flavored or otherwise), but it's fair to expect a study confirming as much before making a global public health policy decision of that magnitude. This article references the WHO statement [1]. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/warns-coronavirus-immunity-passports-200425150532564.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/warns-coronavirus-imm...
- qubex 7y ago
  As others have noted, “not confirmed” does not mean that we have to take all that we know about viruses and immunology and trash it (yet). In all likelihood in due course it shall be confirmed. There’s no reason to believe this virus is fundamentally different from any other.
- JoshuaDavid 7y ago
  "There is no evidence [from rigorous peer-reviewed research] that X is true" and "there is evidence that X is not true" are not the same thing.
meheleventyone 7y ago
Seems like a pretty risky thing to do. Not only to yourself since you don’t know in advance if you’re going to have symptoms or not (risking permanent injury and death) but to your family and wider society. It would only take a few people doing this and not adequately self isolating for the weeks required to get better to start spreading the virus again quickly.
- qubex 7y ago
  Don’t get me wrong, I’m most definitely not advocating it. But keep in mind there’s folks considering shooting up bleach because Podium Dementor mused about it ‘sarcastically’. People’s cognitive processes surprise, sometimes.
  - meheleventyone 7y ago
    Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if the next “superspreader” event after this first set of lockdowns is caused by someone who deliberately infected themselves.

irrational 7y ago

> The alternative is to travel by car. But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car We routinely drive 2000 miles round trip to visit family. People can tolerate lots of time in the car if they really want to go somewhere.

kijin 7y ago
1000 miles one way takes about 15 hours at highway speeds. It's not that different from a transcontinental flight plus the time it takes to travel to and from the airport, wait at the airport, etc. You're also free to bring as much luggage as your vehicle will allow, stop and rest at any time, or go sightseeing along the way. On top of that, the seats are more comfortable, and it might even be cheaper for a family of four. The only downside is that someone has to drive the car for all those hours. As soon as that problem is fixed, I don't see myself traveling by air at all unless I have to cross an ocean.

_iyig 7y ago

>I have a hunch that once the severity of the pandemic eases, we may see an increase in car journeys for holidays, particularly for continental Europe. >But people can only tolerate a certain amount of time in the car and so this may affect where people travel. As an American, I would routinely drive 3+ hours to visit family in the same state, or 6+ hours across several states from my childhood home to university. Growing up in the Midwest, I got used to measuring distance in hours of highway travel time. I wouldn't make those trips every week or every month, but 5-6 times in a year would not have been unusual. I know many people who drove cross-country when moving from East to West Coast (a multi-day road trip), or vice-versa. Road trips in general are firmly rooted in the American experience, as captured in films such as 'National Lampoon's Vacation' or 'Little Miss Sunshine.' Perhaps post-pandemic Europe will see its own road trip renaissance, complete with motels, minivans, and roadside attractions?

open-source-ux 7y ago
"Road trips in general are firmly rooted in the American experience" Road trips in Europe don't quite capture people's imagination in the same way as the Great American road trip. I think it might have something to do with driving across borders - it's exciting but also possibly stressful having to drive in a different, unfamiliar country. Camping is already popular in some European countries. There are lots of camps with modern facilities so its popularity may grow even more.