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> The cumulative excess deaths for all Europe in the last two months matches the COVID-19 reported deaths This article claims that most Covid-19 hotspots have

> The cumulative excess deaths for all Europe in the last two months matches the COVID-19 reported deaths This article claims that most Covid-19 hotspots have significantly more excess deaths than reported covid deaths. Suggesting that there is a lot of underreporting. NYC being a notable exception. I think several countries count only corona deaths in hospitals, but systematically miss all deaths in care facilities. https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/corona-todesfaelle-wie-viele-menschen-sind-wirklich-schon-an-covid-19-gestorben-a-e9061b95-d253-4bac-8bb1-1de05763ca24 https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/corona-todesfaelle-wie-v... (charts should be readable despite any language barrier) (I don't defend either view. As the old joke goes, don't trust any statistics you haven't manipulated yourself :) Statistics and causality have always been difficult, even more so in exceptional time with imperfect short-term data only.)

GuB-42 7y ago
There is under-reporting that's for sure, but there is also a delay in all-cause mortality. In some cases, the same country both over and under reports. To be honest, I am surprised to see such a close match. I expected similar numbers, but this is within ~10%, which I suspect is a coincidence. But still, that's interesting. Another coincidence is that the country that is most suspected of under-reporting, Germany, is also the least represented in EuroMOMO. There is data for only 2 regions. Italy, Spain and France, the most significant contributors both in COVID-19 related deaths and excess mortality in general, all count deaths in care facilities now. I don't know about the UK though. Deaths at home are probably not counted, but according to the authorities, they are a minority: COVID-19 does not happen suddenly and people normally have time to go to the hospital. Still significant though. My gut feeling is that there are actually ~50% more deaths than reported. But we'll have to wait for at least a few months to get proper statistics.

GuB-42 7y ago

There is under-reporting that's for sure, but there is also a delay in all-cause mortality. In some cases, the same country both over and under reports. To be honest, I am surprised to see such a close match. I expected similar numbers, but this is within ~10%, which I suspect is a coincidence. But still, that's interesting. Another coincidence is that the country that is most suspected of under-reporting, Germany, is also the least represented in EuroMOMO. There is data for only 2 regions. Italy, Spain and France, the most significant contributors both in COVID-19 related deaths and excess mortality in general, all count deaths in care facilities now. I don't know about the UK though. Deaths at home are probably not counted, but according to the authorities, they are a minority: COVID-19 does not happen suddenly and people normally have time to go to the hospital. Still significant though. My gut feeling is that there are actually ~50% more deaths than reported. But we'll have to wait for at least a few months to get proper statistics.