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I guess we'll see. I don't share your certainty. Although I'd love to be able to go outside sooner. Also elsewhere in this thread it's mentioned that the Flori
by joshuamorton 7y ago
I guess we'll see. I don't share your certainty. Although I'd love to be able to go outside sooner.
Also elsewhere in this thread it's mentioned that the Florida and Santa Clara results could be entirely explained by high type II error in the test. The Florida test appeared to have a false positive rate of ~15% when independently validated, which is basically the infection rate they found. In other words, this is a specific form of base rate fallacy where the test accuracy is really low.