3 ms·

I now believe that no one really knows much about the spread of this virus. Hence I find it naive to predict that the peak was on one day or another, plus it is

I now believe that no one really knows much about the spread of this virus. Hence I find it naive to predict that the peak was on one day or another, plus it is very unlikely that Sweden would not get even more cases. They are most certainly not at their peak. Look at Spain, locked down hard on March 14th, yet the number of cases on April 4th were the same as on April 24th (!) (and among of the largest observed over 6K). No one would have ever predicted that back in March 14th, that after more than a month of keeping the population like prisoners the number of cases would be still so high with no chance of going to zero any time soon. Eventually, within weeks now, they have to relax the rules, and with that they will be right where Sweden is. When it is all said and done who did better, which society is better off overall. My bet is on Sweden, but the answer will not be determined tomorrow, next week or even next month. Perhaps by this time next year.

mongol 6y ago
Yes it is like following a soccer match and we are 10 minutes into the first half. One team might play significantly better than the other but much time is remaining and it is much too early to draw conclusions.
iampims 6y ago
The number of cases is a function of the number of tests. The number of fatalities would be a better representation of the lockdown effects.
- glofish 6y ago
  The problem with the number of fatalities is that only one fatality is tracked. Where is the counter for the children that die because not getting immunized because of the lockdown? (Turns out there are already tens of millions of them not getting vaccines, measles immunization is down 50%) Where is the fatality counter for depression, for weakened immune systems that lockdown causes, etc. Where is the counter for all the diseases not treated because of the lockdown? Where is the counter for famine and poverty? Do you see the problem? There is only one counter up there ticking up every day, all common sense sacrificed to make the tick go slower. If we had a counter for all the deaths caused by the lockdown there would be no lockdown at all.
  - foogazi 6y ago
    > Turns out there are already tens of millions of them not getting vaccines, measles immunization is down 50% Does the lockdown help in lowering measles transmission rates?
  - IAmEveryone 6y ago
    > Where is the counter for the children that die because not getting immunized They don't die. They are protected because the vast majority is vaccinated. It's something called herd immunity. You seem like you should have heard of it. > for weakened immune systems that lockdown causes That's not a thing. > If we had a counter for all the deaths You're in luck: almost all the statisticians are trying to switch to all-cause mortality. That should be the definite answer to all your questions.
    - glofish 6y ago
      ok bascially you are saying that no deaths have been or will be caused by the lockdown and why vaccinate since herd immunity already affects everyone (never mind 10 if not 100 million vaccines have not been administered) there is no such thing as a weakened immune system after being locked up in a house for weeks if not months. and that is your scientific reasoning ...
soVeryTired 6y ago
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ Log scales are your friend here. The virus was pretty clearly growing exponentially in early March. The implications of that level of growth - unchecked - are terrifying.
- glofish 6y ago
  Nobody, including Sweden advocates doing nothing. What they and other people that use a bit more foresight say is that there is no need to panic and overreact - and that you can get the same results with measures that do not make your population jobless. The strict lockdown was and is a massive overreaction that gave in to alarmism.
  - bitcharmer 6y ago
    > The strict lockdown was and is a massive overreaction that gave in to alarmism This statement sounds very definitive. I'd wait and see because something tells me we don't have enough data for definitive statements.

mongol 6y ago

Yes it is like following a soccer match and we are 10 minutes into the first half. One team might play significantly better than the other but much time is remaining and it is much too early to draw conclusions.

iampims 6y ago

The number of cases is a function of the number of tests. The number of fatalities would be a better representation of the lockdown effects.

glofish 6y ago
The problem with the number of fatalities is that only one fatality is tracked. Where is the counter for the children that die because not getting immunized because of the lockdown? (Turns out there are already tens of millions of them not getting vaccines, measles immunization is down 50%) Where is the fatality counter for depression, for weakened immune systems that lockdown causes, etc. Where is the counter for all the diseases not treated because of the lockdown? Where is the counter for famine and poverty? Do you see the problem? There is only one counter up there ticking up every day, all common sense sacrificed to make the tick go slower. If we had a counter for all the deaths caused by the lockdown there would be no lockdown at all.
- foogazi 6y ago
  > Turns out there are already tens of millions of them not getting vaccines, measles immunization is down 50% Does the lockdown help in lowering measles transmission rates?
- IAmEveryone 6y ago
  > Where is the counter for the children that die because not getting immunized They don't die. They are protected because the vast majority is vaccinated. It's something called herd immunity. You seem like you should have heard of it. > for weakened immune systems that lockdown causes That's not a thing. > If we had a counter for all the deaths You're in luck: almost all the statisticians are trying to switch to all-cause mortality. That should be the definite answer to all your questions.
  - glofish 6y ago
    ok bascially you are saying that no deaths have been or will be caused by the lockdown and why vaccinate since herd immunity already affects everyone (never mind 10 if not 100 million vaccines have not been administered) there is no such thing as a weakened immune system after being locked up in a house for weeks if not months. and that is your scientific reasoning ...

soVeryTired 6y ago

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ Log scales are your friend here. The virus was pretty clearly growing exponentially in early March. The implications of that level of growth - unchecked - are terrifying.

glofish 6y ago
Nobody, including Sweden advocates doing nothing. What they and other people that use a bit more foresight say is that there is no need to panic and overreact - and that you can get the same results with measures that do not make your population jobless. The strict lockdown was and is a massive overreaction that gave in to alarmism.
- bitcharmer 6y ago
  > The strict lockdown was and is a massive overreaction that gave in to alarmism This statement sounds very definitive. I'd wait and see because something tells me we don't have enough data for definitive statements.