3 ms·

Just curious - do you have any sources for this? I've heard it a few times and just looked it up - I found a paper [1] from March 12 that used "statistical mode

by wk_end 7y ago

Just curious - do you have any sources for this? I've heard it a few times and just looked it up - I found a paper [1] from March 12 that used "statistical modelling" to predict ~20% asymptomatic after a delay, but several articles 1-2 weeks after 12th indicating that they were still seeing ~50% (e.g. [2]). I think all the articles with that 50% number were based on the same test, but couldn't find anything suggesting that there were follow-ups to confirm the 20% prediction. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/ [2] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

jacobolus 7y ago
You might be right that that statistical estimate from a month ago was the source of the 20% number. I also can’t find any good follow-up sources. I probably saw that factoid hyped up in multiple media stories which misconstrued the original paper. If anyone knows of more reliable recent sources about this, it would be great to clear it up.
- sharken 7y ago
  It says around 40% in this tweet: https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1252356183077208082 https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1252356183077208082 Also lots of information in the comments.
  - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
    Isn’t this all very tainted that people on a cruise ship confined with people that have it are receiving naturally higher and repeat exposure to active virus than anywhere else?
ziga 7y ago
In this study they tracked 104 patients from the cruise ship, from Feb 11 to Feb 25. Started with 43 asymptomatic (41%), went down to 33 asymptomatic (32%). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038125v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038125v...
- wk_end 7y ago
  Feb 25th seems to predate the reports of the more comprehensive testing that found the near 50% asymptomatic rate. In particular, that CDC report I linked above citing 46.5% is from late March (early release on March 23, published on March 27th). That report cites a website by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare [1], which itself confirms that 46.5% (331/712) is up-to-date as of March 26th. I'm not very knowledgeable about stats, to be perfect honest, but I think your paper must've turned out to be a red herring. Maybe they got unlucky with their sample? [1] https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_000...

by wk_end 7y ago

jacobolus 7y ago

You might be right that that statistical estimate from a month ago was the source of the 20% number. I also can’t find any good follow-up sources. I probably saw that factoid hyped up in multiple media stories which misconstrued the original paper. If anyone knows of more reliable recent sources about this, it would be great to clear it up.

sharken 7y ago
It says around 40% in this tweet: https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1252356183077208082 https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1252356183077208082 Also lots of information in the comments.
- SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
  Isn’t this all very tainted that people on a cruise ship confined with people that have it are receiving naturally higher and repeat exposure to active virus than anywhere else?

ziga 7y ago

In this study they tracked 104 patients from the cruise ship, from Feb 11 to Feb 25. Started with 43 asymptomatic (41%), went down to 33 asymptomatic (32%). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038125v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038125v...

wk_end 7y ago
Feb 25th seems to predate the reports of the more comprehensive testing that found the near 50% asymptomatic rate. In particular, that CDC report I linked above citing 46.5% is from late March (early release on March 23, published on March 27th). That report cites a website by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare [1], which itself confirms that 46.5% (331/712) is up-to-date as of March 26th. I'm not very knowledgeable about stats, to be perfect honest, but I think your paper must've turned out to be a red herring. Maybe they got unlucky with their sample? [1] https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_000...