5 ms·

As a Canadian, I'm shaking my head at our officials who said "we do know that asymptomatic people are not the key driver of epidemics" as a response to concerns

by colmvp 6y ago

As a Canadian, I'm shaking my head at our officials who said "we do know that asymptomatic people are not the key driver of epidemics" as a response to concerns back in January of the potential for the virus to grow in our country via incoming travelers who came from hot spots and were not screened or forced to isolate if they expressed no symptoms. Now our long term care facilities are being overrun with cases potentially because we waited until deaths piled up before testing asymptomatic caretakers for the virus.

hazeii 6y ago
There's asymptomatic and presymptomatic (a very rapid spread could give lots of positive results before symptoms appear).
- SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
  So, in two weeks, if these prisons are still 96% asymptomatic - then what? I hope that’s the case, everyone should. I have yet to see a single indication this is worse than than anyone’s projections. I think that’s a dangerous scenario for the next time a virus comes along. If there is any perceptionat all of overreacting, it’ll be a cry-wolf scenario with a lot of people.
  - Symmetry 6y ago
    Then that would be really weird given other closed groups we've observed and tested closely like the Diamond Princess and would probably be evidence for a significant mutation.
tempestn 6y ago
Agreed 100%. Here in BC, public health wasn't even saying, "It's not known whether asymptomatic carriers can spread the virus," but actually, "Evidence suggests asymptomatic carriers can not spread the virus." Something that as far as I can tell was never actually true. This was reported in public briefings, was repeated by public health nurses on the call-in lines, and was distributed as the government's official position to daycare workers, presumably among others. Really mind-boggling to me. I can only assume somewhere along the line lack of evidence got confused for evidence of lack, and just kept getting parroted from there.
- antonvs 6y ago
  > "Evidence suggests asymptomatic carriers can not spread the virus." I don't understand this. How would that even work? If you're infected, what would stop you from shedding virus like anyone else? Is there a precedent for this, for respiratory viruses?
  - hilbertseries 6y ago
    Both SARS and MERS were not particularly contagious during the incubation phase.
  - vikramkr 6y ago
    Typhoid Mary was a real thing. No matter the precedent for a particular class of virus, this is still a different virus that has clearly evolved higher virulence, and better safe than sorry. In this case, we're sorry
  - notatoad 6y ago
    I think the rationale behind this argument was a thought/hope that the disease was primarily being spread by sneezing or coughing, and if you weren't doing that then you weren't going to spread it.
  - Symmetry 6y ago
    Influenza starts being contagious a few days before symptoms start and stops being contagious a few days before symptoms end, so yes. But the profile for SARS-CoV-2 is particularly front-loaded compared to other viruses where peak infectivity is basically right as symptoms appear. With many other diseases if you catch all symptomatic cases that's enough to drive R well below 1 and from a public health perspective that's all you need.
- uvesten 6y ago
  Exactly like in Sweden. Our ministry of health has _almost_ given up the claim that asymptomatic carriers don't spread the virus by now, so... Progress!
microcolonel 6y ago
Ultimately this has exposed that WHO is a malicious institution which actively undermines the public health for Tedros Adhanom's personal relationship to the cause of the CCP and of fascism more generally. Each of our government's dangerously false statements has come from the WHO, and trusting them has been the primary mistake made in assessing this threat. "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had evidence, "no evidence of asymptomatic spread" when we all had evidence, "no evidence of aerosol spread" when there was evidence in public view: The WHO been there at every step to cast doubt on the seriousness of this threat, and to discourage us from considering and addressing the avenues of spread.
- pfarrell 6y ago
  I can’t believe this is not a new account. Blanket propagandistic statements are not the conversation we have in Hacker News comments.
  - aguyfromnb 6y ago
    >Blanket propagandistic statements Blanket implies "all". Are the OP's following statements incorrect?: "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had evidence, "no evidence of asymptomatic spread" when we all had evidence, "no evidence of aerosol spread" when there was evidence in public view Taiwan warned the WHO with respect to human-to-human transmission. Is this in dispute? https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200412_01/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200412_01/ >not the conversation we have in Hacker News comments. These are precisely the sorts of conversations people should be having.
    - sharken 6y ago
      > These are precisely the sorts of conversations people should be having. Indeed.
    - ephemeralism 6y ago
      From your link, the message that Taiwan sent to the WHO: ""News sources indicate at least seven atypical pneumonia cases were reported in Wuhan, China". It also said while China's health authorities replied to the media that the cases were believed not to be SARS, "they have been isolated for treatment"." Furthermore, from the picture: "I would gladly appreciate if you have relevant information to share with us." So Taiwanese authorities read publicly available news sources about seven atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, and because the media reports said the cases were being isolated for treatment, they asked the WHO if they had any additional information. Unless I'm reading it wrong, this does not mean that Taiwan had any additional knowledge other than what they had read from publicly available information.
prox 6y ago
Its the same story in Wuhan, probably quite a few asymptomatic carriers until the death toll start rising because of the exponential growth and came on the radar.
hn_check 6y ago
A test is a snapshot of time. A person could pass a test and be shedding viruses two days later. A person could shed viruses, get over it, and pass a test.

by colmvp 6y ago

hazeii 6y ago

There's asymptomatic and presymptomatic (a very rapid spread could give lots of positive results before symptoms appear).

SlowRobotAhead 6y ago
So, in two weeks, if these prisons are still 96% asymptomatic - then what? I hope that’s the case, everyone should. I have yet to see a single indication this is worse than than anyone’s projections. I think that’s a dangerous scenario for the next time a virus comes along. If there is any perceptionat all of overreacting, it’ll be a cry-wolf scenario with a lot of people.
- Symmetry 6y ago
  Then that would be really weird given other closed groups we've observed and tested closely like the Diamond Princess and would probably be evidence for a significant mutation.

tempestn 6y ago

Agreed 100%. Here in BC, public health wasn't even saying, "It's not known whether asymptomatic carriers can spread the virus," but actually, "Evidence suggests asymptomatic carriers can not spread the virus." Something that as far as I can tell was never actually true. This was reported in public briefings, was repeated by public health nurses on the call-in lines, and was distributed as the government's official position to daycare workers, presumably among others. Really mind-boggling to me. I can only assume somewhere along the line lack of evidence got confused for evidence of lack, and just kept getting parroted from there.

antonvs 6y ago
> "Evidence suggests asymptomatic carriers can not spread the virus." I don't understand this. How would that even work? If you're infected, what would stop you from shedding virus like anyone else? Is there a precedent for this, for respiratory viruses?
- hilbertseries 6y ago
  Both SARS and MERS were not particularly contagious during the incubation phase.
- vikramkr 6y ago
  Typhoid Mary was a real thing. No matter the precedent for a particular class of virus, this is still a different virus that has clearly evolved higher virulence, and better safe than sorry. In this case, we're sorry
- notatoad 6y ago
  I think the rationale behind this argument was a thought/hope that the disease was primarily being spread by sneezing or coughing, and if you weren't doing that then you weren't going to spread it.
- Symmetry 6y ago
  Influenza starts being contagious a few days before symptoms start and stops being contagious a few days before symptoms end, so yes. But the profile for SARS-CoV-2 is particularly front-loaded compared to other viruses where peak infectivity is basically right as symptoms appear. With many other diseases if you catch all symptomatic cases that's enough to drive R well below 1 and from a public health perspective that's all you need.
uvesten 6y ago
Exactly like in Sweden. Our ministry of health has _almost_ given up the claim that asymptomatic carriers don't spread the virus by now, so... Progress!

microcolonel 6y ago

Ultimately this has exposed that WHO is a malicious institution which actively undermines the public health for Tedros Adhanom's personal relationship to the cause of the CCP and of fascism more generally. Each of our government's dangerously false statements has come from the WHO, and trusting them has been the primary mistake made in assessing this threat. "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had evidence, "no evidence of asymptomatic spread" when we all had evidence, "no evidence of aerosol spread" when there was evidence in public view: The WHO been there at every step to cast doubt on the seriousness of this threat, and to discourage us from considering and addressing the avenues of spread.

pfarrell 6y ago
I can’t believe this is not a new account. Blanket propagandistic statements are not the conversation we have in Hacker News comments.
- aguyfromnb 6y ago
  >Blanket propagandistic statements Blanket implies "all". Are the OP's following statements incorrect?: "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had evidence, "no evidence of asymptomatic spread" when we all had evidence, "no evidence of aerosol spread" when there was evidence in public view Taiwan warned the WHO with respect to human-to-human transmission. Is this in dispute? https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200412_01/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200412_01/ >not the conversation we have in Hacker News comments. These are precisely the sorts of conversations people should be having.
  - sharken 6y ago
    > These are precisely the sorts of conversations people should be having. Indeed.
  - ephemeralism 6y ago
    From your link, the message that Taiwan sent to the WHO: ""News sources indicate at least seven atypical pneumonia cases were reported in Wuhan, China". It also said while China's health authorities replied to the media that the cases were believed not to be SARS, "they have been isolated for treatment"." Furthermore, from the picture: "I would gladly appreciate if you have relevant information to share with us." So Taiwanese authorities read publicly available news sources about seven atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, and because the media reports said the cases were being isolated for treatment, they asked the WHO if they had any additional information. Unless I'm reading it wrong, this does not mean that Taiwan had any additional knowledge other than what they had read from publicly available information.

prox 6y ago

Its the same story in Wuhan, probably quite a few asymptomatic carriers until the death toll start rising because of the exponential growth and came on the radar.

hn_check 6y ago

A test is a snapshot of time. A person could pass a test and be shedding viruses two days later. A person could shed viruses, get over it, and pass a test.