3 ms·
Plugging the 96% into New York numbers results in 155,000 / 4 * 100 = 3,875,000 infected people in NYC, or about half the population. This is assuming that tes
by IAmEveryone 7y ago
Plugging the 96% into New York numbers results in 155,000 / 4 * 100 = 3,875,000 infected people in NYC, or about half the population.
This is assuming that tests in NYC currently include every infected and symptomatic person. Considering the official advice for people with mild symptoms is to stay home (and not seek a test), that assumption is ... optimistic.
It also wouldn't fit with the anti-body tests that have been done in NYC that showed figures closer to 15-20%.
So I'd expect about 1/2 to 2/3 of these 96% to develop symptoms within the next week.
The other possibility is the prison population not being representative of the general population. That's probably true in terms of fatality rates, because they are younger. I'm not entirely sure if that age imbalance is just as strong for any symptoms as it is for risk of hospitalisation and death.