5 ms·

> If we get tens to hundreds of thousands of people dying 400,000 people dying would be 0.1% of the US population. I'm fairly sure the economy could abosrb th

> If we get tens to hundreds of thousands of people dying 400,000 people dying would be 0.1% of the US population. I'm fairly sure the economy could abosrb that, particularly given the demographic bias of mortality. 416,000, primarily young men, died in WW2 of a population of 160 million.

paulryanrogers 7y ago
Did you mean 1%? And what about the percentage with permanent lung damage? Or if it mutates? Or recovery immunity does not last more than a year or so?
- dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 7y ago
  400,000 is just over 0.1% of the total population of approximately 328 Million
  - paulryanrogers 7y ago
    Pardon my sloppiness, it is .1% as I'm the one off by a decimal.
  - quintushoratius 7y ago
    I think he meant that your percentage is off. COVID by itself has a 1-2% mortality, not .1%, and has a rapid infection rate. The combined direct and indirect mortality is trending much higher, perhaps double.
    - hkai 7y ago
      That 1-2% number seems to be an extreme exaggeration, mostly peddled by the media. From research it seems to be at 0.66% or so. That's without taking into account that less than half of the population will get infected. And if you're concerned about short duration of immunity, we shouldn't drag that thing for a year, everyone should get sick faster.
      - TeMPOraL 7y ago
        0.66% if you're one case. More like 4% if there's more cases at the same time than your healthcare system can handle.
dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 7y ago
And 400,000 is about 1/7th of the number of total deaths in the USA in 2018, according the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
danaris 7y ago
WW2 (for the US) lasted, what, 4 years? Now concentrate that death toll into 4 months. Or less.
- mrcarrot 7y ago
  Yeah, 400000 deaths over 4 months would be in the ballpark of the casualties from an Omaha Beach landing every day.
  - mgkimsal 7y ago
    Or like a 9/11 death toll every day for months?
rubber_duck 7y ago
This virus is hitting people with other risk factors hardest - in economic terms it means it's reducing the quality life years the least - when deciding drug funding the high end of $/year is ~200.000k $ - considering the economic damage I would say these measures are well beyond that.

paulryanrogers 7y ago

Did you mean 1%? And what about the percentage with permanent lung damage? Or if it mutates? Or recovery immunity does not last more than a year or so?

dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 7y ago
400,000 is just over 0.1% of the total population of approximately 328 Million
- paulryanrogers 7y ago
  Pardon my sloppiness, it is .1% as I'm the one off by a decimal.
- quintushoratius 7y ago
  I think he meant that your percentage is off. COVID by itself has a 1-2% mortality, not .1%, and has a rapid infection rate. The combined direct and indirect mortality is trending much higher, perhaps double.
  - hkai 7y ago
    That 1-2% number seems to be an extreme exaggeration, mostly peddled by the media. From research it seems to be at 0.66% or so. That's without taking into account that less than half of the population will get infected. And if you're concerned about short duration of immunity, we shouldn't drag that thing for a year, everyone should get sick faster.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      0.66% if you're one case. More like 4% if there's more cases at the same time than your healthcare system can handle.

dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 7y ago

And 400,000 is about 1/7th of the number of total deaths in the USA in 2018, according the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

danaris 7y ago

WW2 (for the US) lasted, what, 4 years? Now concentrate that death toll into 4 months. Or less.

mrcarrot 7y ago
Yeah, 400000 deaths over 4 months would be in the ballpark of the casualties from an Omaha Beach landing every day.
- mgkimsal 7y ago
  Or like a 9/11 death toll every day for months?

rubber_duck 7y ago

This virus is hitting people with other risk factors hardest - in economic terms it means it's reducing the quality life years the least - when deciding drug funding the high end of $/year is ~200.000k $ - considering the economic damage I would say these measures are well beyond that.