3 ms·

Not sure why you’re being downvoted. Here’s an article that puts sources and numbers on your thought: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-ar

Not sure why you’re being downvoted. Here’s an article that puts sources and numbers on your thought: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-i... I’d be curious to hear counterpoints. I could be wrong. It does anyone think this will go away with a long enough lockdown? Or is there any solution other than herd immunity?

anon1385 7y ago
The most important counterpoint is that the Stanford study cited there is really bad: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw... The more recent numbers from New York put the IFR at 0.5 to 1%, which matches what most organisations (WHO, governments etc) have been assuming for a couple of months now. Also the actual death count from NY makes the Stanford numbers pretty much impossible (0.2% of people in NYC have already died).
Ensorceled 7y ago
You linked to an opinion piece, by a former chief of neuroradiology. The "facts" are, in fact, a lot of supposition. We don't know if herd immunity works for this virus (there are reports of the disease resurfacing), we don't know the long term effects (there are reports of long term organ damage even for those not incubated) and we don't understand all the manifestations of the disease (there are reports of people 30-40 dying of COVID induced strokes). The solution is isolate until we can do the hard work of getting mask and other PPE supply chains stabilized, get our health care system back on it's feet, start extensive testing, contact tracing and semi-isolated communities. None of which is possible as long as testing capacity is so limited and people keep exposing themselves unnecessarily.
empath75 7y ago
We don’t know if people have long term immunity.
- mrfusion 7y ago
  If we didn’t have immunity it would be unlike any other respiratory virus known to man. All other corona viruses have non-insignificant periods of immunity. Further Fauci himself says it’s very likely there is immunity: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/fauci-really-confident-people-recover-coronavirus-become-immune-infection-1494612%3famp=1 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/fauci-really-c... There was also a study performed on monkeys showing immunity: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1

anon1385 7y ago

The most important counterpoint is that the Stanford study cited there is really bad: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw... The more recent numbers from New York put the IFR at 0.5 to 1%, which matches what most organisations (WHO, governments etc) have been assuming for a couple of months now. Also the actual death count from NY makes the Stanford numbers pretty much impossible (0.2% of people in NYC have already died).

Ensorceled 7y ago

You linked to an opinion piece, by a former chief of neuroradiology. The "facts" are, in fact, a lot of supposition. We don't know if herd immunity works for this virus (there are reports of the disease resurfacing), we don't know the long term effects (there are reports of long term organ damage even for those not incubated) and we don't understand all the manifestations of the disease (there are reports of people 30-40 dying of COVID induced strokes). The solution is isolate until we can do the hard work of getting mask and other PPE supply chains stabilized, get our health care system back on it's feet, start extensive testing, contact tracing and semi-isolated communities. None of which is possible as long as testing capacity is so limited and people keep exposing themselves unnecessarily.

empath75 7y ago

We don’t know if people have long term immunity.

mrfusion 7y ago
If we didn’t have immunity it would be unlike any other respiratory virus known to man. All other corona viruses have non-insignificant periods of immunity. Further Fauci himself says it’s very likely there is immunity: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/fauci-really-confident-people-recover-coronavirus-become-immune-infection-1494612%3famp=1 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/fauci-really-c... There was also a study performed on monkeys showing immunity: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1