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Are there any studies, or even computer models, which attempt to estimate the efficacy of contact tracing in a pandemic which already has double-digit prevalenc
by zaroth 7y ago
Are there any studies, or even computer models, which attempt to estimate the efficacy of contact tracing in a pandemic which already has double-digit prevalence?
> Some public health leaders and infectious disease doctors are questioning the timing of this launch. Galea said contact tracing is usually more effective at the beginning of an epidemic, before a disease like the coronavirus has spread.
> “I don’t know that it’s too late, it’s certainly late,” he says. “Had we had the tests and were we organized enough to do contact tracing right up front, it would have potentially taken us down a very different path in this epidemic.”
While we roll out the red carpet for the most invasive dragnet ever created, do we have any scientific reason to think it will be effective?
- walterbell 7y agoAs Naval said, https://twitter.com/naval/status/1252185901087592448 https://twitter.com/naval/status/1252185901087592448 > Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong _in the same direction_. Finnish: 20-50x undercount Scottish: 27-55x Stanford: 50-85x Italian: 30x Mass: 17x Germany: 0.37% CFR Denmark: 0.21% > If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality. So we have consistent data showing that the risk is much lower. Could we update our now-incorrect models that were used to justify contact tracing and Palantir social network analysis? If we don't trust these expensive studies that all point in the same direction, why should we trust Bluetooth? If we don't trust the tests used in the above studies, how can we use those exact tests to forcibly quarantine not only the people who "test positive" but their entire Palantir contact chain? It would be helpful if we can pick one mathematical dystopia and stick with it. The math-rhetoric dissonance is deafening.
- zucker42 7y agoThe Stanford study does not tell us 50-85x. The results they provided "have no known statistical provenance as of now". https://twitter.com/wfithian/status/1252692365967384576 https://twitter.com/wfithian/status/1252692365967384576
- walterbell 7y agoAs Naval said, if the studies are wrong, they are all wrong in the same direction. A good use of contact tracing would be to point Palantir at the social graphs on each "side" defending or attacking specific virus studies, looking for correlations with industry and other ties. Would be a fun project for social network analysts.