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A roundabout solution might be to only allow people out of quarantine if they have an acceptable contact tracing solution so that if they become infected they c

by jariel 7y ago

A roundabout solution might be to only allow people out of quarantine if they have an acceptable contact tracing solution so that if they become infected they can notify others - and - others can notify them. Then see how supply and demand work that out ... (although it would, of course, take too long). If the draft can exist, so can contract-tracing, it's a matter of context and proportionality. Right now the greater good favours contact tracing though probably not after the pandemic dies down.

foota 7y ago
Orgs like the ACLU have come out requiring it for things.
- jariel 7y ago
  It's absurd to think the ACLU is 'totally cool' with forcing an entire nation to stay in their homes, or wear masks, but 'livid' about contract tracing. I can understand why you might immediately think that because we are so concerned about 'privacy' these days, but just consider what is going on for a moment. 'Stay at home' -> OK 'You must wear a mask in public' -> OK 'Contact tracing' -> Controversy! No, the fact we are in a la-la land existential crisis changes everything. If universal contact-tracing is a viable solution to get things moving, then it's exceedingly rational to require it. And without a vaccine, it's absolutely viable - we know this because it works in S. Korea. Everyone gest the app, or something approximating it, testing should be relatively widespread and effectively focused on 'contacts' - and we can keep Covid at bay so long as we follow the rules and a bunch of other precautions are taken. It's been demonstrated to work.
xenonite 7y ago
No, the contact tracing only works as an additional measure, not as a replacement for the quarantine measures. Don’t forget that the airflow provides a major infection vector, which can’t be traced via Bluetooth or location.
- jariel 7y ago
  Contract tracing works for the general population, obviously, if you are positive you stay home.
  - iso947 7y ago
    Someone doesn’t know they have it. They go to a restaurant. It spreads to a dozen people all over the restaurant due to airflow. How does contact tracing help?
    - jariel 7y ago
      I can hardly believe HN-ers who've been on lockdown for a month haven't dug into how successful countries are dealing with this. 'Contract tracing' and essentially 'contact testing' are the tools that winning countries are using. In Taiwan, they basically abolished Covid, there are so few cases, they have a handle on all of them. More generally Korea, where the disease is 'out there' but more minimally, they use the strategy more agressively. Yes - it's possible for people who are 'pre-symptomatic' to spread the disease, but we're not sure of those parameters yet, and now symptomatic they are. If people who have any flu or Corona-like symptoms isolate themselves immediately, and then go for a test - this is a good starting point. If they test positive, then the 'contact tracing' can identify other people who need to have precautionary testing or isolation. Korea has been doing this to great effects. Everyone is clamouring on about their 'freedoms' while locked at home - when they could be out and about using a contact tracing strategy as in Korea. The US would have to get down to a smaller number of cases first, but it's absolutely a 'get the economy going' strategy, we know it works because we have the Korean example. Not only do we know it works, it's the only example of a strategy that enables freedom of mobility and relative association while 'living with' the Coronva virus.
      - xenonite 7y ago
        For me, your points do not answer the previous post. For a common discussion ground, it maybe helps to give links to the following articles, which describe the asymptomatic transmission, and the airflow transmission. "Asymptomatic transmission, Achilles’ heel of current strategies to control Covid" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22971691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22971691 "Covid-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22955779 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22955779
GhostVII 7y ago
I think it is pretty dangerous to tell the entire population that their choices are either to install an app which tracks their movement, or essentially be under house arrest. Even outside of the privacy issues, some people just don't have the capabilities to do that, my grandmother is never going to figure out how to work a phone, or get set up and monitor a contact tracing app. Maybe we could provide a free alternative that protects your privacy, eg. wearing a mask whenever you are in public.
- jariel 7y ago
  The choice right now is 'stay inside or die'. Just 'wearing masks in public' is obviously not a solution or else we'd be doing it, or someone else would and we'd have evidence that it works, but just the opposite. Without a vaccine, our options are extremely limited. 'Universal Contact Tracing' with testing follow up is employed in Korea and it's the only solution that has been shown to work (other than total eradication like Taiwan, but you need very strong borders for that). So 'right now' if we had our act together, we could probably start to loosen up, so long as we had contact tracing - and teams ready to follow up on those 'positive tested' so that their contacts can be traced etc.. Just like with everything, there are winners and losers. It wouldn't cost much to get granny a SIM+cheap mobile, and let her know all she has to do is 'keep it on' for her own safety. She can do that with some help.
  - iso947 7y ago
    And keep it charged
    - jariel 7y ago
      Somehow Korean Grannies are able to cope (are they magic?) because their country is operational, people are out and about and their economy is functioning at the same time that they keep Coronavirus at bay. Meanwhile HN-ers in an uproar over the government 'possibly knowing their location' (but probably not really) literally as they are hunkered down at home, the most severe form of de-facto emergency law in the nation history ... The Koreans have effectively managed Coronavirus and their government isn't going to throw them all in jail any time soon, it's entirely reasonable and rational to have a tracking policy in place that's proportional and effective.

by jariel 7y ago

foota 7y ago

Orgs like the ACLU have come out requiring it for things.

jariel 7y ago
It's absurd to think the ACLU is 'totally cool' with forcing an entire nation to stay in their homes, or wear masks, but 'livid' about contract tracing. I can understand why you might immediately think that because we are so concerned about 'privacy' these days, but just consider what is going on for a moment. 'Stay at home' -> OK 'You must wear a mask in public' -> OK 'Contact tracing' -> Controversy! No, the fact we are in a la-la land existential crisis changes everything. If universal contact-tracing is a viable solution to get things moving, then it's exceedingly rational to require it. And without a vaccine, it's absolutely viable - we know this because it works in S. Korea. Everyone gest the app, or something approximating it, testing should be relatively widespread and effectively focused on 'contacts' - and we can keep Covid at bay so long as we follow the rules and a bunch of other precautions are taken. It's been demonstrated to work.

xenonite 7y ago

No, the contact tracing only works as an additional measure, not as a replacement for the quarantine measures. Don’t forget that the airflow provides a major infection vector, which can’t be traced via Bluetooth or location.

jariel 7y ago
Contract tracing works for the general population, obviously, if you are positive you stay home.
- iso947 7y ago
  Someone doesn’t know they have it. They go to a restaurant. It spreads to a dozen people all over the restaurant due to airflow. How does contact tracing help?
  - jariel 7y ago
    I can hardly believe HN-ers who've been on lockdown for a month haven't dug into how successful countries are dealing with this. 'Contract tracing' and essentially 'contact testing' are the tools that winning countries are using. In Taiwan, they basically abolished Covid, there are so few cases, they have a handle on all of them. More generally Korea, where the disease is 'out there' but more minimally, they use the strategy more agressively. Yes - it's possible for people who are 'pre-symptomatic' to spread the disease, but we're not sure of those parameters yet, and now symptomatic they are. If people who have any flu or Corona-like symptoms isolate themselves immediately, and then go for a test - this is a good starting point. If they test positive, then the 'contact tracing' can identify other people who need to have precautionary testing or isolation. Korea has been doing this to great effects. Everyone is clamouring on about their 'freedoms' while locked at home - when they could be out and about using a contact tracing strategy as in Korea. The US would have to get down to a smaller number of cases first, but it's absolutely a 'get the economy going' strategy, we know it works because we have the Korean example. Not only do we know it works, it's the only example of a strategy that enables freedom of mobility and relative association while 'living with' the Coronva virus.
    - xenonite 7y ago
      For me, your points do not answer the previous post. For a common discussion ground, it maybe helps to give links to the following articles, which describe the asymptomatic transmission, and the airflow transmission. "Asymptomatic transmission, Achilles’ heel of current strategies to control Covid" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22971691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22971691 "Covid-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22955779 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22955779

GhostVII 7y ago

I think it is pretty dangerous to tell the entire population that their choices are either to install an app which tracks their movement, or essentially be under house arrest. Even outside of the privacy issues, some people just don't have the capabilities to do that, my grandmother is never going to figure out how to work a phone, or get set up and monitor a contact tracing app. Maybe we could provide a free alternative that protects your privacy, eg. wearing a mask whenever you are in public.

jariel 7y ago
The choice right now is 'stay inside or die'. Just 'wearing masks in public' is obviously not a solution or else we'd be doing it, or someone else would and we'd have evidence that it works, but just the opposite. Without a vaccine, our options are extremely limited. 'Universal Contact Tracing' with testing follow up is employed in Korea and it's the only solution that has been shown to work (other than total eradication like Taiwan, but you need very strong borders for that). So 'right now' if we had our act together, we could probably start to loosen up, so long as we had contact tracing - and teams ready to follow up on those 'positive tested' so that their contacts can be traced etc.. Just like with everything, there are winners and losers. It wouldn't cost much to get granny a SIM+cheap mobile, and let her know all she has to do is 'keep it on' for her own safety. She can do that with some help.
- iso947 7y ago
  And keep it charged
  - jariel 7y ago
    Somehow Korean Grannies are able to cope (are they magic?) because their country is operational, people are out and about and their economy is functioning at the same time that they keep Coronavirus at bay. Meanwhile HN-ers in an uproar over the government 'possibly knowing their location' (but probably not really) literally as they are hunkered down at home, the most severe form of de-facto emergency law in the nation history ... The Koreans have effectively managed Coronavirus and their government isn't going to throw them all in jail any time soon, it's entirely reasonable and rational to have a tracking policy in place that's proportional and effective.