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> Several trillion dollars is still worth it $2 trillion is 10% of GDP or the losses in ~6 months of a lockdown resulting in 80% productivity (with the assumpt
by aianus 6y ago
> Several trillion dollars is still worth it
$2 trillion is 10% of GDP or the losses in ~6 months of a lockdown resulting in 80% productivity (with the assumption that everything goes back to normal immediately after the shutdown, which it won't)
So it seems like a ~6 month lockdown is warranted if you crassly value saving a life from COVID at $1 million. That's not long enough for a vaccine.
Alternatively, working backwards, you need to value a life saved at $3-$4m each to make a 18-24 month lockdown worth it.
- johnnyo 6y agoWe’ve already got a “Value of Statistical Life” in the US, and it’s higher than that. So you could justify lockdown on that alone EPA recommends that the central estimate of $7.4 million ($2006), updated to the year of the analysis, be used in all benefits analyses that seek to quantify mortality risk reduction benefits regardless of the age, income, or other population characteristics of the affected population https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/mortality-risk-valuation#means https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/mortality-risk-v...
- astrophysician 6y ago6 month lockdown doesn’t seem necessary, but a lockdown until it’s possible to do contact tracing and containment does seem necessary, either way this is something that easily warrants a drastic response because the potential cost is so high.