4 ms·

Do we have any idea how much of a difference it would make on the propagation of the epidemics if everyone would wear a (possibly homemade) mask?

oski 7y ago
It seems like a significant difference -- see how Hong Kong is doing. It needs to be combined with other interventions including social distancing, contact tracing, testing, quarantining. These measures are all additive to each other. See this thread: https://twitter.com/slowblogger/status/1249712749728284672 https://twitter.com/slowblogger/status/1249712749728284672
- jtbayly 7y ago
  So... no, we don't.
  - mantap 7y ago
    Of course not, it's a novel virus, with novel transmission characteristics, there is no evidence for any of the interventions against it until someone tries them, and even then the evidence is usually inconclusive. Such is life.
- sandworm101 7y ago
  And look to canada, with infection rates less than half that of the US. I'm there now (BC, west coast, very very low infection rate). We are already talking about reducing measures because our hospitals are well below capacity. With all the cancelled procedures, they are less busy than before this crisis. But masks are nowhere near universal. In my area masks are more social signaling, a fashion object only worn in very particular circumstances if at all. Masks may have a use but they are certainly not a total fix. There are lower-hanging fruit. Compare the United States. There is a BBC article online now about how 40,000 households a year are having their WATER cut off. That sort of behavior is far more dangerous than not using cloth masks. Forget universal healthcare debate, first agree that people have a right to water. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52384622 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52384622
- hkai 7y ago
  I think Hong Kong is mostly lucky given that people here still go to hotpot dinners, completely ignore the "no groups of more than 4 people" ban and think that getting on a crowded bus in a mask protects them from catching the virus.
  - samus 7y ago
    Thinking of being protected by face masks is a lazy mental shortcut for "I will limit the spreading of my microbiome, if all others do the same, infection risk goes down"
op03 7y ago
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear...
m4rtink 7y ago
There are a couple countries like the Czech Republic where face masks are mandatory in public and you can be fined if you don't have one covering your nose and mouth, so data about this should be available eventually.
yfzhou 7y ago
We have a real-world experiment going on right now - East Asia vs. the West. The result is clear despite other variables like population density being very much in the west's favor.
- yodsanklai 7y ago
  > We have a real-world experiment going on right now - East Asia vs. the West. I agree this is a very good argument. I just wonder if it's the end of the story and if the differences we observe can only be attributed to mask wearing. For instance I don't think all Asian countries have the same policies regarding masks though. Also, there may be other factors at play, e.g. cultural and geographical elements.

oski 7y ago

It seems like a significant difference -- see how Hong Kong is doing. It needs to be combined with other interventions including social distancing, contact tracing, testing, quarantining. These measures are all additive to each other. See this thread: https://twitter.com/slowblogger/status/1249712749728284672 https://twitter.com/slowblogger/status/1249712749728284672

jtbayly 7y ago
So... no, we don't.
- mantap 7y ago
  Of course not, it's a novel virus, with novel transmission characteristics, there is no evidence for any of the interventions against it until someone tries them, and even then the evidence is usually inconclusive. Such is life.
sandworm101 7y ago
And look to canada, with infection rates less than half that of the US. I'm there now (BC, west coast, very very low infection rate). We are already talking about reducing measures because our hospitals are well below capacity. With all the cancelled procedures, they are less busy than before this crisis. But masks are nowhere near universal. In my area masks are more social signaling, a fashion object only worn in very particular circumstances if at all. Masks may have a use but they are certainly not a total fix. There are lower-hanging fruit. Compare the United States. There is a BBC article online now about how 40,000 households a year are having their WATER cut off. That sort of behavior is far more dangerous than not using cloth masks. Forget universal healthcare debate, first agree that people have a right to water. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52384622 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52384622
hkai 7y ago
I think Hong Kong is mostly lucky given that people here still go to hotpot dinners, completely ignore the "no groups of more than 4 people" ban and think that getting on a crowded bus in a mask protects them from catching the virus.
- samus 7y ago
  Thinking of being protected by face masks is a lazy mental shortcut for "I will limit the spreading of my microbiome, if all others do the same, infection risk goes down"

op03 7y ago

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear...

m4rtink 7y ago

There are a couple countries like the Czech Republic where face masks are mandatory in public and you can be fined if you don't have one covering your nose and mouth, so data about this should be available eventually.

yfzhou 7y ago

We have a real-world experiment going on right now - East Asia vs. the West. The result is clear despite other variables like population density being very much in the west's favor.

yodsanklai 7y ago
> We have a real-world experiment going on right now - East Asia vs. the West. I agree this is a very good argument. I just wonder if it's the end of the story and if the differences we observe can only be attributed to mask wearing. For instance I don't think all Asian countries have the same policies regarding masks though. Also, there may be other factors at play, e.g. cultural and geographical elements.