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So why is it that climate scientists - the most educated people on this topic - overwhelmingly believe that evidence supports a theory of anthropogenic climate

So why is it that climate scientists - the most educated people on this topic - overwhelmingly believe that evidence supports a theory of anthropogenic climate change? Is it more likely that they are all wrong, that they are all in on an elaborate conspiracy, or that you are wrong?

chrisco255 6y ago
Number one they're not all in agreement. Number two, outright, science does not work on consensus. The only reason climate relies on consensus is because they cannot validate their models. They are stuck on the hypothesis step of the scientific method. It doesn't matter how many people you get to agree with your hypothesis. Without empirical experimentation, it proves nothing. You cannot beat chaos theory. The current crop of climate scientists are not being honest about the extremely exponentially high levels of uncertainty in their forecasts. You would do well to read from first principles on chaos theory and ask yourself whether I'm the crazy one for claiming that the future of our climate is unknowable. We understand weather far better than we understand climate. And we cannot predict it more than 10 days into the future. At any rate of you want to hear it from true experts here are a few: Richard Lindzen, PhD Atmospheric Sciences, MIT https://youtu.be/X2q9BT2LIUA https://youtu.be/X2q9BT2LIUA Patrick Moore, UBC https://youtu.be/kHZKo13HV2A https://youtu.be/kHZKo13HV2A Henrik Svensmark, Danish Space Institute https://youtu.be/wU1qg8HceGI https://youtu.be/wU1qg8HceGI Freeman Dyson, Cornell https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs NASA admitting they have no model for clouds: https://youtu.be/ra9AFNco3lI https://youtu.be/ra9AFNco3lI
- thomas2718 6y ago
  Predicting the weather is fundamentally different from predicting climate. Let's play a coin game. We'll throw a fair coin 100,000 times. Beforehand, I predict the number of heads +-0.5%. If I'm right, 1,000$ for me, if I'm wrong, 1000$ for you. The probability that my prediction is correct is more than 99.8%. Nevertheless, I can predict a single coin flip only with a 50% chance. A single coin flip represents a weather forecast. Climate, however, is the long term average, represented by the total number of heads. Even if I cannot predict the individual events (like tomorrows weather), I can say something about the averages with high probability.

chrisco255 6y ago

Number one they're not all in agreement. Number two, outright, science does not work on consensus. The only reason climate relies on consensus is because they cannot validate their models. They are stuck on the hypothesis step of the scientific method. It doesn't matter how many people you get to agree with your hypothesis. Without empirical experimentation, it proves nothing. You cannot beat chaos theory. The current crop of climate scientists are not being honest about the extremely exponentially high levels of uncertainty in their forecasts. You would do well to read from first principles on chaos theory and ask yourself whether I'm the crazy one for claiming that the future of our climate is unknowable. We understand weather far better than we understand climate. And we cannot predict it more than 10 days into the future. At any rate of you want to hear it from true experts here are a few: Richard Lindzen, PhD Atmospheric Sciences, MIT https://youtu.be/X2q9BT2LIUA https://youtu.be/X2q9BT2LIUA Patrick Moore, UBC https://youtu.be/kHZKo13HV2A https://youtu.be/kHZKo13HV2A Henrik Svensmark, Danish Space Institute https://youtu.be/wU1qg8HceGI https://youtu.be/wU1qg8HceGI Freeman Dyson, Cornell https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs NASA admitting they have no model for clouds: https://youtu.be/ra9AFNco3lI https://youtu.be/ra9AFNco3lI

thomas2718 6y ago
Predicting the weather is fundamentally different from predicting climate. Let's play a coin game. We'll throw a fair coin 100,000 times. Beforehand, I predict the number of heads +-0.5%. If I'm right, 1,000$ for me, if I'm wrong, 1000$ for you. The probability that my prediction is correct is more than 99.8%. Nevertheless, I can predict a single coin flip only with a 50% chance. A single coin flip represents a weather forecast. Climate, however, is the long term average, represented by the total number of heads. Even if I cannot predict the individual events (like tomorrows weather), I can say something about the averages with high probability.