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The preparations are unnecessary until they suddenly aren't. If you wait until bakeries close and supermarket bread aisles are empty, then it's too late. This

The preparations are unnecessary until they suddenly aren't. If you wait until bakeries close and supermarket bread aisles are empty, then it's too late. This is like having backups and disaster recovery in IT. You spend resources on it, but get nothing in return. That one time things do go wrong though it can literally save your business and you'll be happy to have had backups and recovery in place. I think that people's fears of a lack of food in first world countries are overblown, but people are still afraid.

TallGuyShort 6y ago
While I agree with you about the necessity, I don't think people are really doing much to actually solve a potential problem either. If we really get to the point that bakeries and supermarkets are out of bread and other reasonably convenient staples, you having bought flour in a moment of panic is of little comfort. There's more to the equation, and generally I feel that if people weren't comfortably ready for this 2 years ago, they won't be remotely ready in 2 days. So let's say things have collapsed to the point that all the bakeries or supply chains leading to you are now out of commission. It's time to bake bread and you have flour. Do you have yeast and other ingredients already? They're already in shortages too. Is your water service and electricity / gas still working? Do you have experience baking bread, or access to a recipe book, or is your Internet service provider still operating? Okay - let's say the bread supply has collapsed completely and all of these things are still working out for you - great - you can bake some bread! But honestly, even that's pretty lucky. You might be eating cold gruel with water from the creek, if you even know that's a thing. But wait! There's more! All the supply chains near you have just collapsed. Everyone's going hungry once they've gone through their 2 (or 0) bags of flour. Is your house about to be looted? Can you secure it? Are the phones and police dispatch still working? Do you have anything else to eat with your week's supply of bread? Are you even emotionally prepared for what life is like now if things are getting this bad and you just now decided to have some extra flour on hand? Wait - is that a fever and non-productive cough you're starting to feel? What are you wiping your ass with!? If all you have in mind is last-minute hoarding of a few staples, you're contributing to a wider short-term problem and your staples won't keep you sane and healthy very long. If you're bored in quarantine, now's a good time to start planning to be more prepared and self-sufficient for the next event.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  There's a point in between things blowing over and civilization collapsing. It's the point where most people will survive (if uncomfortably), but some people will starve. Perhaps because of a larger (but localized) shortage, perhaps because they'll get priced out. Some people, but not enough to cause the entire society to self-destruct. You want to make sure you and your loved ones don't become a part of this group, if it's avoidable.
- renewiltord 6y ago
  You don't need yeast. You can bake things with flour and baking powder. In fact, with bananas, flour, baking powder, cinnamon, sugar, and butter you can have banana bread that's just fine.
  - zrobotics 6y ago
    Yeast is far, far easier to keep around than bananas though. Honestly, I'm not trying to be mean, but if we are talking supply-chain shortages, bananas are the worst suggestion. They don't last long at all, and rely on being transported vast distances. Cinnamon is also not the best suggestion- there is a very good reason spices were considered a luxury, as they aren't truly necessary and rely on being transported long distances. Baking powder is a reasonable suggestion, as it stores essentially indefinitely. Making it is theoretically possible, but it isn't a project I'd recommend for an inexperienced chemist. Although if things are at that point, bread likely won't be your highest priority. Sourdough would be a viable suggestion, there is a reason the miners in the Yukon gold rush used it. It can be made with ingredients that can be locally sourced/grown nearly anywhere. However, it does rely on refrigeration.
    - renewiltord 6y ago
      Sure, sure, but you can just freeze applesauce or the bananas. It'll last ages. It'll definitely outlast any temporary supply chain stall. Cinnamon lasts forever too, and it's very compact powdered. I have like half a kilogram and I don't even bake that often. Truly thing you can make quick breads pretty easily and without any work at all and the goods for it will last ages. Even flour. Actually, the modern freezer will keep you safe and secure for ages. All you need is electricity and you can outlast any temporary supply chain stall with this stuff. People buying flour are perfectly fine. It's okay to be annoyed that people are making it hard to practise your hobby. Just sounds silly when folks try to make it out to be some irrational thing that other people are trying things.
TeMPOraL 6y ago
> I think that people's fears of a lack of food in first world countries are overblown, but people are still afraid. I'd love to think that, but as I follow supply chain news these days, it dawns on me that economy is surprisingly complicated. Just as a random example from today, I wouldn't ever think that there may be issues in food production in the US because of shortage of carbon dioxide, ultimately caused by ethanol manufacturing shutting down, which is tied to all the oil being dumped on the market. Or another example, shortages of flour and yeast in stores were not caused by the shortage of actual product, but of commercial-sized packaging. I like to think that my region will be fine, food-wise. But I worry that some non-obvious links in the food supply chain get broken and the situation will rapidly deteriorate. So even as we bake our own bread and pizzas now, I'm slowly increasing the supply of flour anyway (among other foodstuffs).
- azernik 6y ago
  This fragility is a result of an intentional trend - lean supply chains. To cut capital tied up in inventory, manufacturing and retail businesses have worked very hard to remove warehouses full of inputs and finished products from their supply chains. Unfortunately, those inefficiencies had the secondary function of a buffer in case of disruptions, which means the lag between the disruption and its consequences has gotten shorter. (The two functions are closely related, in that pre-lean manufacturing had all kinds of disruptions occur all the time, meaning their supply chains were essentially under constant low-grade stress tests. Lean logistics has been in part a massive effort to get rid of those unnecessary disruptions.)

TallGuyShort 6y ago

While I agree with you about the necessity, I don't think people are really doing much to actually solve a potential problem either. If we really get to the point that bakeries and supermarkets are out of bread and other reasonably convenient staples, you having bought flour in a moment of panic is of little comfort. There's more to the equation, and generally I feel that if people weren't comfortably ready for this 2 years ago, they won't be remotely ready in 2 days. So let's say things have collapsed to the point that all the bakeries or supply chains leading to you are now out of commission. It's time to bake bread and you have flour. Do you have yeast and other ingredients already? They're already in shortages too. Is your water service and electricity / gas still working? Do you have experience baking bread, or access to a recipe book, or is your Internet service provider still operating? Okay - let's say the bread supply has collapsed completely and all of these things are still working out for you - great - you can bake some bread! But honestly, even that's pretty lucky. You might be eating cold gruel with water from the creek, if you even know that's a thing. But wait! There's more! All the supply chains near you have just collapsed. Everyone's going hungry once they've gone through their 2 (or 0) bags of flour. Is your house about to be looted? Can you secure it? Are the phones and police dispatch still working? Do you have anything else to eat with your week's supply of bread? Are you even emotionally prepared for what life is like now if things are getting this bad and you just now decided to have some extra flour on hand? Wait - is that a fever and non-productive cough you're starting to feel? What are you wiping your ass with!? If all you have in mind is last-minute hoarding of a few staples, you're contributing to a wider short-term problem and your staples won't keep you sane and healthy very long. If you're bored in quarantine, now's a good time to start planning to be more prepared and self-sufficient for the next event.

TeMPOraL 6y ago
There's a point in between things blowing over and civilization collapsing. It's the point where most people will survive (if uncomfortably), but some people will starve. Perhaps because of a larger (but localized) shortage, perhaps because they'll get priced out. Some people, but not enough to cause the entire society to self-destruct. You want to make sure you and your loved ones don't become a part of this group, if it's avoidable.
renewiltord 6y ago
You don't need yeast. You can bake things with flour and baking powder. In fact, with bananas, flour, baking powder, cinnamon, sugar, and butter you can have banana bread that's just fine.
- zrobotics 6y ago
  Yeast is far, far easier to keep around than bananas though. Honestly, I'm not trying to be mean, but if we are talking supply-chain shortages, bananas are the worst suggestion. They don't last long at all, and rely on being transported vast distances. Cinnamon is also not the best suggestion- there is a very good reason spices were considered a luxury, as they aren't truly necessary and rely on being transported long distances. Baking powder is a reasonable suggestion, as it stores essentially indefinitely. Making it is theoretically possible, but it isn't a project I'd recommend for an inexperienced chemist. Although if things are at that point, bread likely won't be your highest priority. Sourdough would be a viable suggestion, there is a reason the miners in the Yukon gold rush used it. It can be made with ingredients that can be locally sourced/grown nearly anywhere. However, it does rely on refrigeration.
  - renewiltord 6y ago
    Sure, sure, but you can just freeze applesauce or the bananas. It'll last ages. It'll definitely outlast any temporary supply chain stall. Cinnamon lasts forever too, and it's very compact powdered. I have like half a kilogram and I don't even bake that often. Truly thing you can make quick breads pretty easily and without any work at all and the goods for it will last ages. Even flour. Actually, the modern freezer will keep you safe and secure for ages. All you need is electricity and you can outlast any temporary supply chain stall with this stuff. People buying flour are perfectly fine. It's okay to be annoyed that people are making it hard to practise your hobby. Just sounds silly when folks try to make it out to be some irrational thing that other people are trying things.

TeMPOraL 6y ago

> I think that people's fears of a lack of food in first world countries are overblown, but people are still afraid. I'd love to think that, but as I follow supply chain news these days, it dawns on me that economy is surprisingly complicated. Just as a random example from today, I wouldn't ever think that there may be issues in food production in the US because of shortage of carbon dioxide, ultimately caused by ethanol manufacturing shutting down, which is tied to all the oil being dumped on the market. Or another example, shortages of flour and yeast in stores were not caused by the shortage of actual product, but of commercial-sized packaging. I like to think that my region will be fine, food-wise. But I worry that some non-obvious links in the food supply chain get broken and the situation will rapidly deteriorate. So even as we bake our own bread and pizzas now, I'm slowly increasing the supply of flour anyway (among other foodstuffs).

azernik 6y ago
This fragility is a result of an intentional trend - lean supply chains. To cut capital tied up in inventory, manufacturing and retail businesses have worked very hard to remove warehouses full of inputs and finished products from their supply chains. Unfortunately, those inefficiencies had the secondary function of a buffer in case of disruptions, which means the lag between the disruption and its consequences has gotten shorter. (The two functions are closely related, in that pre-lean manufacturing had all kinds of disruptions occur all the time, meaning their supply chains were essentially under constant low-grade stress tests. Lean logistics has been in part a massive effort to get rid of those unnecessary disruptions.)